Congress president's election: Uncertain times ahead for the party

The election of Kharge as Congress president is almost certain. From here on, if the Congress does not improve its poor electoral performance, a challenge could emerge to the Gandhi family leadership

With the almost certain election of Mallikarjun Kharge as Congress president on October 17, the Congress will not necessarily become a more democratic party, just as J P Nadda's extension did not make the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) more undemocratic. The contrast being made between election vs nomination in appointing the president of the two parties is quite erroneous.

The key to the relationship of a party's manager to its political leader is whether the party is in power or out of it. Its organisational leadership is subservient to its political leadership when it is in government, and the role of the party president is more managerial. However, if it is out of power, the party's political leadership tends to control the organisation directly – and the top leader often assumes the party's presidency.

Today Prime Minister Narendra Modi is the unquestioned political leader of the BJP, and J P Nadda oversees the party as the BJP president on his behalf, just as Amit Shah did before him. Nadda's job is to implement the political will of Prime Minister Modi in the organisation. Earlier, when Atal Bihari Vajpayee held power in Delhi, Bangaru Laxman, Jana Krishnamurthy and Venkaiah Naidu as party presidents oversaw the organisational functioning on Vajpayee's behalf. For the same reason, a less pliable Nitin Gadkari's exit from controlling the party organisation was necessary for the ascendant political leadership. However, when the BJP was out of power and with little prospect of forming a government, anyone from the leadership collegium of the party could become its president – from founders of the party like Vajpayee, L K Advani, and Murali Manohar Joshi to even Kushabhau Thakre, who was barely known outside the BJP.

Therefore, the Congress party's election of a president is not comparable to the BJP. It has been out of power for eight years, and there is no certainty of gaining power even two years later, in 2024. At such a time, the party organisation is being handed over to someone with little political charisma and who is unlikely to become its political supremo.

The shift of the Gandhi family from tacitly supporting Ashok Gehlot to Kharge is instructive in understanding how the Congress party's political leadership wants the party to be overseen on their behalf. Gehlot ruined his chances by trying to hold on to both Rajasthan's chief ministership and the Congress's presidency. The Gandhi family took this as a sign that Gehlot's ambition could get the better of his loyalty. He could prove to be another P V Narasimha Rao who had completely marginalised the family. Gehlot may not be removed as Chief Minister of Rajasthan because of immediate political compulsions – any brash action could destabilise the party's government and ruin its chances for the assembly election in 2023. However, the Gandhi family may find it difficult to trust him again.

The Gandhis may have eventually decided to back Kharge for several reasons. He is from southern India, where the party still enjoys some support, leaders from the region (with the exception of S Nijalingappa) have proven to be loyal to the family, and he is already 80 years old. Perhaps it is hoped that Kharge will not go against the family in the twilight of his political career. 

It is a new experiment for the Congress leadership to hand over the party to a trusted manager while it remains out of power. The arrangement is risky and can potentially unfold in unpredictable ways. The best outcome for the Gandhis would be that Kharge remains loyal and does not resist being eased out a few years later. But other outcomes are equally possible. Two years later, for example, Kharge may turn and try to take effective control of the party just as P V Narasimha Rao did after waiting a few years and completely side-lining Sonia Gandhi. After the Babri Masjid demolition, family loyalist Arjun Singh was deployed against Rao, but he was unsuccessful.

Much would depend on how Congress performs in the 2024 general election. If the party becomes electorally stronger – say, it doubles its tally in Parliament and gains power in a few more states – then the family could gracefully ease out an 82-year-old Kharge, who keeps indifferent health, and appoint a new president from the family itself. But everything could turn if the Congress does not improve its poor electoral performance. Rahul Gandhi would be seriously undermined after trying almost everything to revive the party's fortunes. In such a scenario, it may be difficult to sustain the current perception that the Gandhi family and its inherited political capital are the glue that holds the party together. A challenge could emerge to its leadership.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's leadership is personal, and he is fated to be replaced eventually as leader of the BJP. However, the Congress party's leadership is institutionalised in the Gandhi family. If that is eroded, then the fate of the new Congress will be up in the air. If some charismatic vote-catcher does not emerge to keep the party together, it may splinter into several regional parties. That is why it is safe to say that the Congress party's presidential election could be quite transformative for its future.

As for the candidature of Shashi Tharoor, it suits the party and the family to have a contest. His ambition is no threat to it, as was evident from his seeking the blessings of Congress president Sonia Gandhi for his candidature. He is by no means a rebel candidate without the backing of the so-called G-23 group that wanted fundamental structural changes in the Congress. With most of the G-23 falling behind Kharge, the party election will only be a symbolic contest. Tharoor's candidature may give a democratic veneer to the Congress party but will not impact its future.