Crawling to stand still

US jobs' full circle shows slow pace of upturn

It's a landmark of sorts. All 8.7 million US jobs lost in the Great Recession have finally been replaced. But America needs about the same number again just to allow for population growth since the last employment peak in early 2008. There are shifts from manufacturing to services, too, but overall it's just a much slower upturn than previous examples.

The employment gain in May of 217,000, reported on Friday, was better than the average 173,000 monthly additions since the nadir in February 2010. However the population aged 16 or over is increasing by nearly 200,000 monthly, requiring almost 120,000 jobs to be added each month simply to keep the same proportion of the population in work. Making that adjustment, May's report only brings the US half way back from the trough, even assuming no further population growth.

The recovery of jobs lost has been exceptionally slow this time around, requiring 76 months compared with 48 months between 2001 and 2005, 32 months between 1990 and 1993, and 28 months from 1981 to 1983. Sluggish recent productivity increases add to the sense that the 21st-century US economy is showing signs of senescence - although mongers of doom have underestimated human ingenuity and resilience before.

Job creation patterns also raise questions for the future. About 1.5 million US jobs have been lost in construction, while a purported manufacturing renaissance has not prevented the disappearance of 1.6 million jobs in the segment. Finance and retailing have lost positions too, as has the information sector despite Silicon Valley's exuberance. The big gainers have been healthcare and social assistance, adding 2.1 million jobs, leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and education.

An economy of things is thus shifting toward an economy of services. That isn't a new trend, but at a minimum it makes the economy less predictable and makes it likely that reduced participation in the workforce - another concern since the financial crisis - may persist for lack of new jobs that suit people who have lost old ones. The bigger picture, though, is that it's simply a long, sluggish recovery.