Devangshu Datta: Nuclear accidents and black swans

The global nuclear arsenal has gotten smaller since the USSR broke up. But the number of states with nuclear weapons has risen and perhaps, as importantly, nations and non-state actors with nuclear aspirations have increased

The metaphor of the black swan as myth goes back to the first century CE, when the satirist Juvenal wrote "The black swan is a rare bird". The black swan is native to Australia, and it was unknown in the northern hemisphere.

No prior experience predicted its existence.

Black Swan became a pop catchphrase after Nassim Nicholas Taleb's eponymous book. Taleb believes one-off, highly improbable events - aka black swans - play a huge role in shaping destiny. The timing of the publication in 2007 was improbably perfect. The Subprime Bubble blew up in 2008 and that black swan drew attention to the book's thesis.

Outside of finance, Taleb has criticised Steven Pinker's best-seller, The Better Angels of Our Nature (2011) several times. Professor Pinker believes "violence has declined by dramatic degrees all over the world in many spheres of behaviour: genocide, war, human sacrifice, torture, slavery, and the treatment of racial minorities, women, children, and animals". He looked at possible underlying reasons.

Taleb has written, or co-authored, at least three technical papers, and one essay criticising Pinker's arguments and challenging the contention that violence has declined. He uses statistical methods and arguments to claim violence is underestimated.

Summarising, Taleb says that there have often been long periods of "peace" (as in no wars between global powers) . There is no way to extrapolate from that to argue that a major war won't happen. Also, very high death-tolls (all the way to extinction) may occur in a single modern conflict, given nukes. This is a new risk.

Nuclear weapons were used in 1945. Nuclear states have been in direct conflict once (Kargil 1999). The USA and the Soviet Union were at loggerheads for 45 years but avoided open conflicts. Even so, nukes came close to being launched many times.

The global nuclear arsenal has gotten smaller since the USSR broke up. But the number of states with nuclear weapons has risen and perhaps, as importantly, nations and non-state actors with nuclear aspirations have increased. A nation with just a few warheads could cause massive casualties and possibly, even extinction, if it triggered massive retaliation or nuclear winter.

Both Russia and the US have pared arsenals. Successor states like Belarus, Kazakhstan and the Ukraine have dismantled respective arsenals, a decision the Ukrainians may be regretting. But North Korea, India and Pakistan are now nuclear states. Israel is believed to have owned nuclear weapons since the 1970s.

Iran's nuclear aspirations have led to sanctions and cyber-attacks on its nuclear facilities. But Iran has not necessarily abandoned its ambitions. There are reports that the Islamic State is looking for a bomb. Saudi Arabia may do so as well, given its edgy relationship with Iran.

This makes many 21st Century nuclear scenarios possible. India-Pakistan could nuke each other in some future conflict. North Korea could hit South Korea or Japan. Iran-Israel and Iran-Saudi Arabia could escalate. Nobody has a clear idea of what a non-state actor like ISIS may do. There is also the nightmare of the rogue-soldier, who steals a nuclear device. These are all black swans.

Another black swan would be a major accident at a nuclear plant. Three Mile Island (1979), Chernobyl (1986) and Fukushima (2011) were straws in the wind with Chernobyl and Fukushima rated at the highest level of major accident. Thousands died and 900 square km exclusion zones were created, with mass evacuations.

Nuclear power is cheaper and cleaner than power from conventional fuels. But an accident in a nuclear plant may have far worse consequences. The chances of an accident is very low. But fears of catastrophe have crippled the nuclear power industry.

This is a conundrum for India's policymakers to deal with. Nuclear power is obviously tempting for a power-deficient country. But a major accident in a nuclear plant could make Bhopal look like a picnic. Can the appearance of such a black swan be ruled out?

Twitter: @devangshudatta