Devjyot Ghoshal: Myanmar calling

From Naypyidaw – the vast, new capital city carved out of the jungle over the last decade – Myanmar’s military-backed government is readying to lead its people out of the years in the wilderness.

The man in charge of Myanmar’s re-engagement on the world stage is President Thein Sein. A former general, Sein was hand-picked for the job by his predecessor Than Shwe — the military strongman who wielded absolute power for almost 20 years before stepping down in March, after allowing the first elections in the country since 1990.

Without a doubt, though, Sein faces formidable challenges.

After years of authoritarian rule in which political freedom and human rights were violated repeatedly and often violently, the current regime’s international acceptability is a matter of concern. Besides, Myanmar is also one of Asia’s poorest states with an economy that is shattered by inept planning, inefficient policies and corruption, despite being a resource-rich country of 53 million people.

But in recent weeks, Myanmar’s efforts to emerge from isolation have gained substantial impetus. In particular, the decision of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), at its meetings in Bali, to allow the country to chair the 10-member organisation in 2014 has been seen as a recognition of the reforms that have been made by Sein’s government.

Since the elections late last year – which were criticised by international observers for not being free and fair – the military and its proxy-political front, Union Solidarity and Development Party headed by Sein, have made concessions. Hundreds of political prisoners, including Nobel Peace Prize winner and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, have been set free; censorship controls over the media and the Internet have been eased; a new Bill allowing citizens the right to protest has been passed; and, most importantly, the controversial Chinese-funded $3.6 billion Myitsone Dam project was halted after public opposition erupted against it — an indication that Myanmar’s military junta may finally be willing to move out of Beijing’s shadow.

It is this momentum of reforms, rather than a blemished past of stalled improvements, that world leaders, including US President Barack Obama and heads of states of the Asean members, chose to focus on when they met at the East Asia Summit this month. It was hoped, at the same time, that the reward of Asean chairmanship would hasten the process of democratisation in Myanmar.

As US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is headed to Myanmar – the first visit by a top US diplomat to the country in over half a century – it may be too early to gauge the extent of progress that has been made in Myanmar in the last year and what can be achieved going into 2014. Nonetheless, along with the recognition of the change underway, cognisance must be taken of the opportunities that the opening-up of Myanmar will create, particularly for a country like ours. India not only stands to gain from the international community’s shift in stance towards Naypyidaw, but it can also leverage the strong relationship that it is has painstakingly maintained with the country’s ruling class.

Myanmar, by virtue of being the only Asean state with which India shares a land border, is the lynchpin of New Delhi’s ambitious plans for connectivity with the 10-member regional bloc. These include the India-Asean highway as well as arrangements under the Mekong-Ganga and the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) initiatives.

Then, there is also the Rs 535-crore Kaladan multi-modal transport project being executed by Essar. The project plans to connect Myanmar’s Sittwe Port through waterways and roads to Mizoram, thereby opening up an alternative route for transporting goods into the north-east.

For India’s landlocked north-eastern states, increased connectivity will result in the strengthening of the existing commercial and trade flows. Significantly, there is also a security dividend to be sought in this restive region that has been often wracked by terror groups operating covertly from across the border.

At the same time, for energy-hungry India, Myanmar with its largely untapped oil and gas resources is an attractive destination. Although Indian firms like ONGC Videsh and GAIL have already invested there, the race for Myanmar’s energy assets has often been dominated by the Chinese.

Beijing, however, has recently shown some reluctance in furthering its involvement with Myanmar’s energy sector — a trend that could have accelerated after the Myitsone incident. Also, many Western energy majors are banned from making new investments due to government-enforced sanctions. This, effectively, opens up a prospective window for India to strengthen its energy cooperation with the country.

However, in the reformist momentum in which Myanmar currently finds itself, India has something to offer that China simply cannot: democracy. Given the international community’s expectations and the close scrutiny to which Myanmar will be subjected, India’s close links, both with the country’s military regime and opposition figures like Aung San Suu Kyi, an alumnus of New Delhi’s Lady Sri Ram College, will be invaluable.

But precisely what role the world’s largest democracy can play to help spawn the world’s youngest will also depend on Naypyidaw’s ability to not miss the wood for the trees.