Election results 2019: A mandate to go where no one has gone before

Voters bought fully into Narendra Modi's warrior narrative about himself despite the fact that he will be 69-years-old in September. 'Modi vs. Nobody' pithily reduced his opponents to non-entities

After the stunning results of the 2019 general election, political pundits are wont to say – the people have spoken. But what have they spoken and what is this mandate for?

In this general election, Prime Minister Modi successfully distracted the attention of the voter from his failure in domestic governance, especially his disastrous economic policies. The voter was never allowed to connect the threat to the nation from inimical forces to political and administrative failures. Prime Minister Modi was able to convince voters that India was under seige not only from Pakistan and the terrorists it housed, but also from fifth columnists in India – minorities, illegal immigrants from Bangladesh, liberals, ‘pseudo-secularists’, and ‘anti-nationals’ who questioned his security narrative. He successfully tapped into the authoritarian proclivities of the electorate, calculating that if they felt sufficiently threatened they would vote for a strong leader who promised security.

Illustration by Binay Sinha

Yet despite his authoritarian proclivities, Prime Minister Modi refused to repudiate democratic principles of the Constitutional order. He can achieve far more with greater legitimacy within the boundries of the Constitution. The electorate has given him the mandate to use democratic procedures to shrink and even subvert the Constitution’s democratic promises. Some citizens can now feel more equal than others.

Indians seem to appreciate only negative and oppressive power. Modi’s narrative about himself depends on damning leaders who worked by consensus as weaklings. They were made into objects of derision in his campaign. Anyone who seeks greater democratisation, tolerance and a civilised public discourse was projected as lightweight and weak. Witness the way Congress president Rahul Gandhi is being ridiculed for responding amiably, without rancour to the abuse hurled at him by political adversaries. Being good has suddenly become bad in a new India.

Voters bought fully into Prime Minister Modi’s warrior narrative about himself despite the fact that he will be 69-years-old in September. They believed him when he said that he was a winner not only against terrorism and Pakistan but also against dynasts and snobbish city slickers. “Modi vs. Nobody” pithily reduced his opponents to non-entities.

How will this mandate be operationalized over the next five years? Will his governance style be different?

In his first term, his governance was tempered by the need to be accepted both at home and abroad – especially to an international liberal elite which was critical of his tenure in Gujarat. His mega-shows in foreign capitals were a message to world leaders about his acceptance and popularity. His serial hugging of world leaders also helped market him at home. If he was feted abroad then surely his domestic critics must be wrong.

In his second term, Prime Minister Modi’s real world view is likely to be bolder. Only unpredictable world events or domestic political realities might lead to a moderation in implementing his core vision.

Domestically, the Opposition, hobbled by the numbers gifted by the electorate, will find it difficult to agitate effectively in Parliament, influence legislative business or take the government to task. The allies of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), will still be needed by the BJP to contest legislative elections in the states and in territories where the BJP has had limited presence. However, no NDA ally will be able to presume indispensability. Even a belligerent Shiv Sena will no longer get its way either in Delhi or in the state of Maharashtra, knowing full well that its electoral success is in large part because of the popular vote for Prime Minister Modi.

The worst affected will the BJP itself. In the last five years it was evident that Prime Minister Modi brooks no questioning by party MPs or even his ministers. They will have learnt their lesson. Those senior ministers who were positioning themselves as an alternative leadership will be side-lined with either inconsequential portfolios or given politically ineffectual positions signalling their political retirement. The party will grow but the crisis of deinstitutionalisation it faces may become acute.

Most importantly, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh will either have to change or be tamed. If it fails to extend uncritical support to Prime Minister Modi, it might even witness leadership change. The bureaucracy is also expected to fall in line. One can be reasonably sure that there would no more dissenting notes leaked on the process of defence purchases or other policy decisions of the government. As for institutions, several more cages will be needed for the “tamed parrots”, lining up to get their wings clipped.

Public dissent will be suppressed and the relentless attack on civil society activists and islands of liberal thought will continue with greater aggression. Witness the BJP general secretary who led a mock “Occupation of Khan Market” as if that was the well-spring of Indian liberal and democratic thought. Institutional capture in a bid to impose a homogenised thought process would continue. The few media enclaves that have upheld the importance of critical thought in the first term of Prime Minister Modi might not survive. All those espousing causes on the fringe whether religious, cultural, political, or identity based, had better watch out. India is shrinking back into its most conservative norms.

In the end, Prime Minister Modi’s massive mandate is for an aggressive stance against real and imagine adversaries, especially Pakistan and the terrorism it promotes against India. The voter has also spoken for strengthening a “national”  identity firmly based on Hindu cultural symbols and defending it from rationalist universalist critiques of reason as well as the corruptions of “Islam” and more inchoately, of  “Western” liberal culture.

This narrative of Hindu nationalism has been around at least since the beginning of the 20th century. However, it was outfought and marginalised by a liberal political vision of modernity and universal equality and became enshrined in the Constitution of Independent India. Now its time has come. The electorate has commissioned Captain Modi of Starship India to explore new frontiers and boldly go where the polity has not dared to go earlier.

Twitter: @Bharatitis