Game of thrones in Nepal: The great game in the Himalayas

Nepal has become a playground for international geopolitics, and its politics of musical chairs has become murkier

Nepal's democratic politics has been marked by back-stabbing, betrayals and backroom deals by its self-seeking political leaders. The election for Nepal's next president on March 9 is part of the same saga. It may be a masterstroke that will achieve what the US and India could not pull off in December last – a government less amenable to Chinese influence.

Prime Minister Pushpakamal Dahal (aka Prachanda) and his Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) have gone back on an unwritten understanding with its alliance partner K P Oli's Communist Party of Nepal - Unified Marxist Leninist (UML) that it would support its candidate for President of the Republic. Instead, he will support the candidate of the main Opposition party, the Nepali Congress. Prachanda apprehended that the UML could create problems for him, having seen the president's office becoming openly partisan under the outgoing President, Bidya Devi Bhandari.

Prachanda's volte-face was deliberate, meant to force UML out of the government. After the expected victory of Nepali Congress' candidate for president, Ramchandra Paudel, a coalition government led by Prachanda with the support of NC, Madhav Nepal's Communist Party of Nepal (United Socialist), Upendra Yadav's Peoples' Socialist Party of Nepal and C K Raut's Janmat Party, and other smaller parties, is expected to come into being with a comfortable majority.

The Maoists had contested the November 2022 general election in alliance with the Nepali Congress. The understanding between Prachanda and Sherbahadur Deuba of the Nepali Congress was that they would take turns as prime minister for two and a half years each. However, with the Nepali Congress emerging as the largest party in parliament – 89 seats versus the Maoists' 30 -- Deuba insisted on being prime minister first. He was egged on by the international forces backing him. However, Prachanda became prime minister by unexpectedly forging another power-sharing agreement with his arch-rival KP Oli. This was the worst geopolitical outcome for those who wanted to keep China at bay in Nepal. Now, however, Prachanda has changed sides again, and the arrangement has come unstuck.

As Nepal becomes a playground for international geopolitics, its politics of musical chairs has become murkier. Nepal's outgoing foreign minister Bimla Rai Paudyal has blamed "uninvited foreign guests" for the "political instability" which led to the UML exiting the government. Her party spokesman has indicated that she was "probably" referring to the high-level visits from the US and India before the seismic political changes in Kathmandu. US Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland,  US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State (Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs) Afreen Akhtar and USAID Chief Samantha Power visited Kathmandu in quick succession after the new government assumed office.

Nepal foreign ministry officials have claimed in the media that the US visitors "got themselves invited, we did not invite them". They have alleged that defying protocol, their representatives were kept out of the visitors' meetings with political leaders. A visit by the Chief of the Central Intelligence Agency, William J Burns, was barred by Nepal last week, ostensibly due to the impending presidential election. These visits were followed by Indian Foreign Secretary Vinay Mohan Kwatra.

Whether these visitors played any role in the new political equations emerging in Nepal must necessarily remain in the realm of speculation. However, the Nepalese widely believe that they did. It was common knowledge that the US and India were disappointed when the Deuba-Prachanda alliance did not fructify last December. Now they appear to have achieved what they wanted, albeit with Prachanda at the helm.

Prachanda is seen as pragmatic and broadly pro-India, unlike Oli, who has played the China card earlier. Prachanda will, however, need a reliable guarantor to ensure that Deuba will not destabilise him in the first two and half years of his tenure. He is believed to have chosen India to underwrite the arrangement.

The broad contours of the deal seem to be that Prachanda would continue as prime minister for two and half years; he would then be replaced by Madhav Nepal for one year (as compensation for withdrawing from the contest for Nepal's presidentship in favour of the Nepali Congress' candidate). After that, Deuba will take over for the remaining one and a half years of this parliament. Three-and-a-half years, however, is a very long time in Nepal's politics, and it remains to be seen if Indian influence and advice will be enough to rein in the ambitions of Deuba. He is 76 and will push 80 when his turn comes. No one can predict what might happen by then.

The US would like a political dispensation in Kathmandu that looks at bilateral relations beyond the prism of aid. It sees Nepal as a part of its Indo-Pacific strategy and wants engagement at multiple levels, including with its army. To counter Beijing's influence, the US has made a US $500 million grant under the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) for infrastructure development. The Maoists opposed the MCC grant earlier but finally ratified its acceptance in parliament last February.

The recent US officials visiting Kathmandu apparently pushed for Nepal to recognise the Tibetan refugees by giving them identity cards (which Prachanda is believed to have refused), an assurance that despite having joined China's Belt and Road Initiative earlier, Nepal will not join China's proposed Global Security Initiative and proposed that Nepal reconsider joining the State Partnership Programme (SPP), an exchange programme between US National Guard and foreign militaries. The SPP, which seeks to enhance US military engagement with Nepal, was rejected by the former Deuba-led government in June 2022.

India seems to be okay with the US doing the heavy lifting in its backyard since it also has concerns about China in Nepal. But it could seriously affect India's influence in the long run. Contrary to popular belief, it is not China that is about to replace India in Nepal. The US has probably already replaced it in shaping Nepal's politics, with India reduced to a maintenance role.