'Gupkar gang' will not throw the match in Jammu & Kashmir

The participation of the J&K political parties should not be seen as an endorsement of state reorganisation any more than their participation in the District Development Council elections was

The participation of the Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) political parties, barring the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP), in the deliberations of the Delimitation Commission, has rekindled the hope of politics reviving in the Union Territory (UT). Delimitation of constituencies is the precursor to legislative Assembly elections.
 
If delimitation proceeds apace, Prime Minister Narendra Modi could well announce elections in J&K in his Independence Day speech. Assembly elections and restoration of statehood in J&K would create the right optics for the prime minister’s official visit to Washington DC, where he hopes to meet US President Joe Biden later this year. Officials are already at work to schedule the visit.

 
Does this mean that the Modi government has succeeded in implementing its road map for J&K and that the Kashmiris are reconciled with the fate of their erstwhile state? Far from it.
 

Why then did the Kashmiri political parties accept the prime minister’s invitation for a meeting on June 24 and subsequently engage with the Delimitation Commission? The mainstream political parties, called ‘pro-India parties’ in Kashmir, could not have refused Delhi’s invitation. Otherwise, despite upholding the Constitution of India, they risked being portrayed as anti-national elements. The central government, on the other hand, would appear as a reasonable negotiator whose offer of dialogue had been rebuffed, even though it unilaterally changed the constitutional status of J&K.

 
On the Delimitation Commission’s agenda of demarcating seven additional constituencies for the UT of J&K, the parties are divided. The PDP considers the J&K State Reorganisation Act 2019 unconstitutional and therefore also the Delimitation Commission which follows from it. Other mainstream parties – especially the National Conference and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) – while underlining that state reorganisation is under challenge in the Supreme Court, have nevertheless proffered their views on the delimitation process.
 
The Modi government’s delimitation exercise aims to increase the political weight of the Jammu region in the UT. It is uncertain whether the 2011 Census data on population will help it to do so. This is why the BJP is making a case before the Delimitation Commission that constituencies should be demarcated on the basis of voter registration numbers. This gives an advantage to Jammu because in the Valley many citizens, sometimes entire villages, have not registered as voters since the 1990s because of the fear of militants.

 
It is to ensure that the Delimitation Commission is not hijacked for furthering the BJP’s anti-Muslim agenda that the Kashmir parties have met with the Delimitation Commission. Their participation should not be seen as an endorsement of state reorganisation any more than their participation in the District Development Council elections was.
 
The next big issue will be whether they should participate in the UT Assembly elections. Could this decision split the five parties that constitute the Peoples’ Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD)? The group derided as the 'Gupkar gang' by the Centre earlier, is aware that the Centre is unlikely to meet its main demand for restoration of statehood before the Assembly elections.

 
They are also aware that there may be several contentious issues in restoration of statehood. The Centre may want to retain control over law and order in the new state, as it does in Delhi. Some Kashmiri leaders believe that statehood may be held back to negotiate for a Hindu chief minister from Jammu after the elections.
 
Despite these dilemmas, the Kashmiri political parties have realised that coming together on a common platform has revived their political fortunes and together they can draw on the public desire for statehood. They are apprehensive that leaving any political space uncontested would let the BJP and its allies walk into it. Therefore, a poll boycott cannot be an option for them and so it is likely that they will contest the polls even if it is for a UT Assembly. Their top political leaders could however abstain from contesting.

 
The PAGD as a group is less amenable to manipulation by Delhi than individual parties. They have surmounted their traditional rivalries by committing to restoration of Articles 370 and 35A, the special status of J&K and their opposition to reorganisation. Mehbooba Mufti spoke directly for restoration of Articles 370 and 35A in the June 24 meeting while others left the Constitutional issue to the Supreme Court. Although she did not attend the first PAGD meeting after returning from Delhi, she seems to have realised the importance of unity and did so subsequently.
 
The constituent parties of the PAGD however have not given up their individual identities and could take different tactical positions on different issues. But their strategic goal remains the same. Delhi might leverage differences within PAGD to break it and the PAGD parties will have to be aware of such stratagems.

 
Where do ordinary Kashmiris figure in this process? They are struggling with the opaqueness of administration under President’s rule which is completely unresponsive and unaccountable to locals. The UT’s top bureaucracy is almost entirely from outside the state after the J&K Cadre of civil service was abolished. Even the judiciary in J&K is in thrall of the state’s security paradigm, and the Kashmiris feel that it is futile to seek judicial redress to their problems. Therefore, to get a responsive, accountable and sensitive administration, they may support the demand for the restoration of full statehood, even though they may doubt the ability of these political parties to resolve the larger political issues of J&K.

 
As for the separatists, the Hurriyat stands virtually destroyed. Its leaders have become ineffective either because they are too old or are imprisoned. It is possible that militant sentiment that has been growing since the events of August 2019 will get a psychological boost as the Taliban take over Afghanistan. That the Taliban could defeat two great powers – first the Soviets and now the Americans – against all odds, is likely to fill militant Kashmiri youth with hope. However, as long as Pakistan keeps the tap shut on the supply of weapons, their dreams of launching an effective insurgency will remain a pipedream. Should Pakistan decide otherwise, it could be a different ball game. Meanwhile, the match is on between the PAGD and the Centre.