Is the Opposition falling apart?

After the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) phenomenal victory and its own crushing defeat, I’ve started to ask myself a disturbing question: Is the Opposition falling apart? I can’t answer conclusively but I also can’t deny there are clear signs it is. What’s worse is that the disintegration that’s distinctly visible is likely to get worse.

 

Let’s start with the big picture. The Congress has gone into a crisis, in UP the gathbandhan has split, in Andhra and Telangana the Opposition is merging with the BJP or the TRS, in Karnataka the Congress-JD(S) government is in danger of collapsing and in West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee is showing undeniable signs of panic. From the Hindi heartland to the south, but also the east and, of course, Delhi the cracks are spreading. Opposition unity ended with the elections. Now individual parties are either paralysed or splitting.

 

The most dramatic is the paralysis that’s seized the Congress after Rahul Gandhi’s decision to resign. He insists on going but the party persists with the hope they can change his mind. As a result, instead of leadership the party has a vacuum at the top.

 The view from the states is, at least, as disturbing. Already Deve Gowda has voiced his fear the Congress-JD(S) government in Bengaluru could fall. But there are also gathering clouds on the horizon in Bhopal and Jaipur. Doesn’t that suggest things could get a lot worse for the Congress in the weeks and months ahead?

 

The picture in UP and, possibly, Bihar is equally distressing. In the former, the collapse of the gathbandhan has ensured that the forthcoming 11 by-elections will be a four cornered fight. That can only be good news for Chief Minister Adityanath who can now look forward to winning all of them. Meanwhile, the bitterness between SP and BSP is more likely to make them quarrel with each other than effectively challenge the BJP.

 

Now there are hints of a similar falling apart in Bihar. The Congress leaders in the state are talking of going their own way and deserting the RJD. I don’t know if that will happen but, equally, I can’t confidently say it won’t.

 

Finally, developments in Telangana and Andhra are hardly reassuring. In both the states, the Opposition party has split and either merged with the TRS or the BJP. Consequently, both look like one-party states and neither has an effective Opposition.

 

Perhaps the only Opposition leader whose determination and focus hasn’t wavered is Mamata Banerjee. But her behaviour over the doctors’ strike and, earlier, over the Jai Sri Ram episode is more likely to strengthen Modi’s BJP than her own TMC. If she isn’t careful she could actually end up cutting the ground from under her feet.

 

If this wasn’t bad enough, the future is unlikely to bring comfort. Elections are due in a couple of months in Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand. Hasn’t the crisis in the Congress ensured the BJP will comfortably return in all three and won’t that hammer a few more nails into the Congress’ coffin?

 

Infact, it’s the Congress I’m most worried about. Once it accepts Rahul Gandhi’s departure, could the party tear itself apart finding a new leader? Already the electoral crushing has sparked off serious factions fights in Haryana, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand and Karnataka whilst provoking debilitating desertions in Maharashtra and Telangana. Or if the Congress manages to hang together under Gandhi protection — by asking them to function as the power behind the throne — won’t that render the new president a puppet and the subject of derision?

 

It’s electoral prospects are equally dire. With a solitary seat and just six per cent of the vote share, it’s very unlikely the Congress can revive quickly or easily in UP. And that’s true of Bihar too. But the worst part is the Congress’ presence may also be diminishing in the south. It’s already irrelevant in Andhra and reduced to a rump in Telangana. It’s on the back foot in Karnataka and only survives with DMK assistance in Tamil Nadu. Its only credible base is Kerala. But at this rate how long will it be before south India turns its back on the Congress?

 

If in these circumstances you still see signs of hope then, I guess, you must believe in the phoenix.