Less than tremendous

Donald Trump's first visit was strong on optics

US President Donald Trump’s first visit to India was most notable for the fact that he refrained from controversial tweets, performed manfully to script (even if he mangled the pronunciation of Indian names) and delivered on the minimalist agenda: A $3-billion defence deal, high-voltage pomp and pageantry, and the promise of a trade deal later this year, though there was no breakthrough to announce after formal talks. Prime Minister Narendra Modi received endorsement from the world’s most powerful person for being “strong”, a “tough negotiator”, and a “very religious man”. Intense personal diplomacy, the preferred style of both leaders, has yielded a baseline reiteration of goodwill between both countries.

Earlier in the day, the two countries signed three memorandums of understanding, including one on the energy sector, and an announcement that the relationship had been upgraded to a “comprehensive global partnership”, a signal that India-US ties seek to go beyond bilateral and regional dimensions to pursuing convergent interests on a global scale. Though the contours of this new relationship were not defined, it could signal closer Indian participation in the Blue Dot Network, the US’s Indo-Pacific initiative to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

On balance, however, the extravagant optics did not mask the fact that the visit yielded little that was substantive, especially for India. For one, Mr Trump was careful to reiterate the good relations he enjoyed with Pakistan’s Imran Khan and China’s Xi Jinping. For another, he spoke of the limited trade deal he has signed with China as a template of the sort of reciprocity he was seeking, underlining India’s rising tariff regime. The $16.9-billion trade deficit (2018-19) between the US and India lurked in Mr Trump’s address. The two sides remained divided over farm products, medical devices, digital trade, and new tariffs, and Mr Trump reiterated that India’s import tariffs were some of the highest in the world. Third, he spoke of the growth of Indian investment in the US, which would have rankled with Indian officials, who were hoping to leverage the visit to bolster foreign direct investment from the US.

As the two leaders hugged each other several times, smoke was rising into the sky in a part of Delhi because of violence over the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA). At his press conference at the US Embassy — at which he talked up his record on Afghanistan, West Asia, handling the coronavirus crisis, and so on in his customary rambling style and took potshots at various Democrat opponents — Mr Trump was careful to steer clear of controversy regarding the CAA and Article 370. A muted reiteration of an offer to mediate on Kashmir was followed by a bland observation that there were “many sides” to the issue. The CAA was discussed at the bilateral talks and so was Article 370 but the US president toed the Indian line that these were internal matters. The most remarkable point of the press conference perhaps was his assertion that Mr Modi had assured him that he “wanted the people to have religious freedom”. 

All in all, the visit cannot be described as a resounding failure. Nor, despite the guard of honour at Rashtrapati Bhavan, the populous feting in Ahmedabad, and a banquet, can it be described as a notable success. At the very least, it ensured that India was able to defend its interests and that all-important trade talks were not off the table. In a stalling economy, this can be considered a hopeful sign.