Cigarette is very highly taxed both by the Centre and the states. Alcohol is also like that. And it varies from state to state. Petroleum is also a very heavily taxed item like the others. The average tax, that is the neutral rate, for these three items is much higher than the average rate for other goods with respect to central excise, service tax as well as sales tax (VAT). So if these three are included in GST, there is no chance at all that the neutral rate will come down. The editorial has referred to 18 per cent recommended by expert committees in the past. These expert committees have never calculated in great detail as has been done by National Institute of Public Finance. If this research institute is asked to calculate the really revenue-neutral rate, it will do it as economists do. Politicians can reduce it to 18 per cent but that will be arbitrary and there will be revenue shortfall all the time and not only for the first five years.
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