Like it or not, the BJP will have to deal with the succession question

Even though Narendra Modi isn't going anywhere in the foreseeable future, it's likely that in private meetings, the question about succession is being asked in hushed voices

We will soon enter the last year of the second term of the BJP. The first faint stirrings of a long-term question can be discerned because there inevitably comes a time in the life of every political party when its members start wondering about leadership change. Not immediately. Not soon, either. But certainly, eventually.

The BJP is no different in this regard. Even though Narendra Modi isn't going anywhere in the foreseeable future, it's likely that in private meetings, the question is being asked in hushed voices: after Modi, who?

Political succession planning in India has always been relatively simple because of the dynastic process. At worst, the pater or mater familias has had to choose between siblings.

The BJP, however, has been quite different. From when it was born 43 years ago till 2013, the party had Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee and Mr Lal Krishna Advani as its undisputed leaders. The question of succession did not arise till 2009 when the BJP came down to just 118 seats in the Lok Sabha, down from the 183 of 1999. The writing was beginning on the wall for the older party leaders.

The more ambitious young leaders of the party started wondering about the future. The man who planned it all out with great clarity, patience and efficiency was the chief minister of Gujarat, Narendra Modi.

It's hard to say when exactly he realised he had a fair chance of becoming prime minister. But one thing seems certain: it could only have been after the BJP lost to the Congress in 2004.

So by 2009, when it lost again, the Modi boat was well on its way to claiming leadership via the "Vibrant Gujarat" summit, which started in 2005 and the "Gujarat model" of development. Throughout this period, he was manoeuvring only within the BJP. He was named the BJP's candidate in September 2013.

In September 2025, Mr Modi will turn 75. He is unlikely to apply his "retire-at-75" rule to himself. In fact, even if he did, the party rank and file wouldn't accept it. But at some point, the party will necessarily have to turn its attention to the succession problem and select someone. Since Mr Modi will be prime minister till at least 2029, if not 2034, the chosen successor will have to be someone in his 50s or early 60s.

At present, there are only two such persons in sight: Home Minister Amit Shah and UP chief minister Yogi Adityanath.

Mr Shah has a full grip on the party organisation. That could make the difference.

Mr Adityanath, however, is seen as the preeminent Hindu leader, at least in North India, which sends nearly half of the MPs to parliament. Indeed, UP alone sends 80, and in a parliamentary party contest for the top job, that will matter even though he is a Thakur or upper caste.

On the other hand, by the time Mr Modi decides to retire, the party's political agenda may well have been completed, which could reduce Mr Adityanath's appeal. The BJP, with some guidance from the RSS, could look for other qualities, such as administrative capability.

In the end, though, it will come down to two things: bargaining power within the party and the backing of the RSS. Both are necessary but not sufficient without the other.

A major indication of the relative strengths of Mr Shah and Mr Adityanath will come when the tickets have to be distributed for 2024. Who will have the upper hand? That will depend on Mr Modi's preference and Mr Adityanath's tactics.