Message from the states

Time for economy to be the focus of politics

Voters of Haryana and Maharashtra have surprised both the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and political pundits. The results of the Assembly elections have turned out to be significantly different from what most exit polls had predicted, and the BJP has underperformed in both the states. While it should be able to form the next government in Maharashtra with its alliance partner, Shiv Sena, the result is unlikely to please the leadership of the party. The BJP has managed to hold on to only 105 seats compared to the expectation of reaching close to the halfway mark on its own in the 288-member Assembly. The story in Haryana is more unfavourable for the BJP where it has failed to cross the halfway mark and has got 40 seats in the 90-member Assembly. On the other hand, the Congress, despite all its weakness and factionalism, has gained 16 seats in Haryana compared with the 2014 elections (till the time of going to press). While in terms of vote share the BJP has gained, improvement in the Congress’ performance is more significant because of the consolidation of anti-BJP votes. The Indian National Lok Dal, for instance, has completely collapsed. In Maharashtra, the BJP is likely to be on the back foot because it has to depend heavily on a more assertive Shiv Sena this time.

At a broader level, these results have several takeaways. First, even if elections since December last year are taken into account, it is clear that voters vote differently in national and state elections. The BJP lost power in three important states — Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan — in December last year, but went on to sweep these states in the Lok Sabha polls. But its vote share has dropped significantly in the Assembly elections. Second, state elections are more about local issues. The BJP campaigned in Haryana and Maharashtra largely on nationalist issues, including the abrogation of Article 370 of the Constitution. It doesn’t seem to have worked despite the opposition being in complete disarray. This perhaps also shows that economics and politics cannot be kept separate for too long. The Indian economy has slowed considerably in the last few quarters and there is distress in rural India, which is reflected in the way parts of rural Maharashtra have voted.

Third, the remarkable showing put up by the Congress in Haryana underlines that all is not lost for the party. Though in Maharashtra the Sharad Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party has performed better, the Congress has managed to hold its ground. It is fair to argue that there is still goodwill for the party in different parts of the country. Had it sorted out its leadership issues in time and backed its local leaders, the results could have looked very different in both the states.

Finally, the results indicate that both the BJP and Congress need to get their act together. The BJP-led governments, both at the Centre and states, would do well to deal with the economic slowdown more seriously. The party has the required political capital and credibility to pursue an aggressive reforms agenda, which will help revive the investment and growth necessary to tackle widespread distress in the economy. Meanwhile, the Congress should swiftly address its leadership issue at the top and empower state leaders. It should, along with other parties, aim to play the role of a constructive opposition, which has a credible story to tell rather than only Modi-bashing. Let the economy be the focus of politics.