Needed: A little humility

There’s a question I’m repeatedly asked these days and I imagine the intensity with which it’s put will only increase as the national election approaches: Can the combined Opposition parties ensure the Modi government is not re-elected? The short answer is yes but it critically depends on certain conditions they must accept. The real issue is, will they?

The first condition — and I’m deliberately using that term rather than any other — is they must view 2019 as 29 state elections rather than one national election. In other words, the Opposition party that gets to play the primary role challenging the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could differ from state to state. Of necessity that task must devolve on the party that is the strongest and, therefore, the most likely to win a majority of seats.

Two things follow. For a start, we’re talking of a series of state level alliances and not a comprehensive national alliance. And the character of these alliances could differ from state to state, depending on the circumstances that prevail.

Equally importantly, whilst the Opposition parties may raise national-level issues they are unlikely to have a common national programme. Of course, they could speak about Dalits and minorities, press censorship and cow lynchings, Hindutva and majoritarianism but in each state the lead party would need to focus primarily on the issues that matter in that state.

The second condition is, the opposition parties must prioritise defeating the Modi government above catering to their individual partisan interests. Only then would a network of state-level alliances be possible. But for some, like Congress, this is considerably easier said than done. This is because Congress will have to make the most sacrifices to secure Opposition unity.

Let me explain. For a start, in states like Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, where Congress believes it has the capacity to defeat the BJP by itself, it would have to forge an alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), both to ensure the latter doesn’t field candidates against it but also to smoothen prospects in Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP could lose many seats. This won’t be easy. Congress wants to safeguard the possibility of its own majority whilst the BSP will insist on a share of the seats.

However, an alliance could be even more problematic in Bengal, Odisha, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. Here, the Congress sees itself as the principal Opposition party to the regional one that is in power. So to ally with the Trinamool Congress, Biju Janata Dal, Telangana Rashtra Samithi and Telugu Desam Party would mean potentially sacrificing its own voter base to enhance the prospects of a rival. Yet, given this is what Congress managed in Karnataka, when it permitted Kumaraswamy to form a coalition government, it’s not inconceivable elsewhere. It all depends on how single-minded is the party’s focus and how convinced the Gandhis are of paying a price to defeat the BJP.

This still leaves two tricky states: Delhi and Kerala. The logic of state alliances would require the Aam Aadmi Party to play the lead role in the former and the Left parties in the latter. Since Congress sees both as its preserve would this be asking too much?

Of course, there are states like Himachal and Uttarakhand where Congress could have a free hand. Or Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and, even, Gujarat where alliances are easier to conceive of. And others like Uttar Pradesh and, perhaps, Bihar, where Congress prospects are slender and it could be possible not to make exaggerated demands. But elsewhere the cost of allying to defeat the BJP might not be easy to accept.

The final question is a simple one: Is the price worth paying? Reduced to under 50 seats in the Lok Sabha and just four state governments including Puducherry, the choice is between paying a hefty price to keep Modi out or suffering another five years of his political domination. Put in these stark terms realism alone could encourage the Congress to swallow its pride. 

Pride, however, has a way of creeping in and undermining sensible strategies. Isn’t that why Rahul Gandhi didn’t ring Arvind Kejriwal and Jaganmohan Reddy and thus failed to secure their support for the Rajya Sabha deputy chairman’s election? A little humility might have made for a winning outcome.