Putin and his Akhand Russia

At various times, Ukraine has been part of sundry political conglomerates. It’s been part of the Russian Empire, part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, and part of a coalition consisting of what is now Poland-Lithuania-Ukraine.

It was also controlled by the Nazis during World War II and part of “Grosse Deutschland” — the Nazi version of Akhand Germany. Ukraine was also a founder-member of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, with a vote in the UN and a stash of nuclear weapons, which it surrendered in 1991.

Many modern nations could, therefore, point to a historical connection and argue this translates into a claim on a large piece of real estate. In area, Ukraine is larger than Germany or France, with a population exceeding 40 million.

The inconvenient fact is that Ukrainians would prefer independence. They have their own language, which was suppressed for a long while, and their own culture. Ukraine is not economically insignificant like Afghanistan, Chechnya, Georgia, or Armenia.

It is a highly educated nation with excellent academic institutions hosting many Indian students, and it has a big, well-distributed diaspora. It has a large industrial base and fertile wheat-fields. It exports edible oils and industrial metals. Ukrainians are also better footballers than Russians — Dinamo Kiev contributed the bulk of the Soviet soccer squads.
 

As the potted history above indicates, many armies have been marching back and forth across those parts. There were innumerable gigantic battles during World War II as Germany marched in, and then the Soviets threw them out. When the weather is reasonable, it’s ideal country for massed armour assaults because it’s more or less flat. When the weather isn’t reasonable — several months of the year — it’s freezing cold, or a sea of disgusting, very smelly mud. The only access to salt water via the Black Sea is now being cut off by Russian military. Vladimir Putin annexed the Crimea several years ago.

Ukraine was the breadbasket of the USSR until Stalin triggered a famine in the 1930s with collectivisation and crazy agricultural policies. Several million Ukrainians starved and the Holodomor (Death by Hunger), as the Ukrainians call it, is recognised as ethnic genocide.

As a result, when the Germans invaded, they were welcomed as liberators by many. Hitler vitiated that initial feel-good factor by carrying out his own patented version of genocide. But Ukrainian separatists fighting for independence continued their struggle until the mid-1950s. It was only after the death of Stalin (1953) that Nikita Khrushchev, himself Ukrainian, brokered peace.

This may be an important pointer to possible future scenarios. Consider that Ukrainian guerrillas, utterly isolated from the rest of the world, fought the Red Army and the KGB for many years after World War II ended.

Compared to the USSR, the successor Russian state is fragile, weaker economically and militarily, and it has an ageing, declining population. Russia is also stretched in Syria, and Kazakhstan. There have been domestic protests against the invasion.

Until 1991, Ukraine’s Western neighbours were Soviet satellites. They are now independent nations. Hungary, Romania and Poland are NATO members. A Ukrainian resistance would have easy access to friends, and material assistance. It is very possible that Russia will overrun Ukraine but it is also very likely that it will not be able to establish full control, or easily suppress revolts and resistance.

The worst outcome of the invasion would be nuclear conflagration. But even in the best case, it will lead to much misery, many deaths, and a drop in global economic activity. A long-drawn conflict where Russia and Ukraine both bleed out is not an unlikely scenario. Global energy supplies and metal supplies will be disrupted. Russia may need workarounds to tap international financial systems as sanctions start to bite.

Why did Putin do this? His reasons appear opaque unless you accept his repeated articulation of the Akhand Russia doctrine at face-value. He’s ageing. He wants a legacy to compare with that of his namesake, St Vladimir, Prince of Kiev, who established an early Russian state. This sort of harking back to distorted historical fantasies of Akhand anything never leads to win-win outcomes. In fact, it’s usually lose-lose.