Rahul Gandhi's political pilgrimage: Loaded with too many expectations

For the Congress to be credible as an Opposition party, it needs to rebuild a grassroots organisation, restore cadre's confidence in the leadership and convince people that it has a political future

A tweet by a Congress leader about the ongoing "Bharat Jodo Yatra (BJY)" led by Rahul Gandhi claimed somewhat extravagantly, "Padyatra (walking on foot) transformed Shankar into Shankaracharya, Nanak into Guru Nanak, Mohandas into Mahatma Gandhi, Vinayak into Vinoba Bhave and Prince Ram into Lord Ram. Those who make fun of padyatras are foolish. They do not know history." 

How far is Rahul Gandhi's yatra likely to transform him and his party's political fortunes? It will require huge physical energy from Rahul Gandhi and his companions. Most people can walk for a few hours or a couple of days, but to continue walking for 150 days is a test of endurance and morale of different magnitude.

Initial public response to the 3,500 km walkathon should put party sceptics on the backfoot who thought the yatra a somewhat outdated mode of political mobilisation. Media reports suggest that people are spontaneously welcoming the Congress yatris (political pilgrims) and joining them for long stretches of the march. One report described the BJY as "more akin to a moving carnival than an arduous struggle." Still, it is early days yet to forecast how the BJY will pan out, and it might become overloaded with too many expectations.

The fact that the yatris are carrying the Tricolour rather than the Congress party flag is being read as a message that the march is for the larger objective of national renewal. Rahul Gandhi's inclusion of the entire Opposition when speaking of resistance to the "divisive" politics of the Modi regime is being seen as a change in the Congress stand. While the Udaipur resolution of the Congress "Chintan Shivir" (party retreat) spoke of strengthening the party, Rahul Gandhi, the pilgrim, spoke of defending the entire Opposition against "misuse" of government agencies to "scare" them. Nor is it insignificant that the Opposition leader, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister and leader of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), M K Stalin, participated in flagging off the march.

While the BJY may have the potential to build a broad Opposition unity against the Modi government's policy failures and help Rahul Gandhi forge a ground connect, it is also an election-oriented march for the Congress. Even if it does not raise the Congress party flag, the BJY undeniably takes place in the shadow of looming elections – state elections in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh this year; and Karnataka, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Telangana, among others in the Northeast next year; leading up to the general election of 2024. The attempt to build organisational momentum for the grand finale in 2024 is an important goal for the BJY.

Also read: Bharat Jodo Yatra will help in forging opposition unity: Rahul Gandhi

Also, despite being the Opposition's largest party, Congress does not offer any leadership to it. Sonia Gandhi keeps indifferent health; Priyanka Gandhi has failed to earn her spurs in UP. Because of his repeated failure to lead the party to electoral victory, not many in the Opposition see Rahul Gandhi leading either his party or the Opposition, even if they are not hostile to the party. This means that many regional leaders are trying to fill that void. They include Mamata Banerjee of Trinamul Congress, K Chandrasekhar Rao of the Telangana Rashtra Samithi and Nitish Kumar of the Janata Dal (United), the latest to throw his hat in the ring. None adds a single voter to the Opposition's kitty outside their states. The challenge before the Congress is to occupy that oppositional space. That is why despite the Udaipur Chintan Shivir decision, Rahul Gandhi has to speak in a non-partisan way about the government's onslaught on the combined Opposition and the need for a collective fight.

However, to be credible in such a role, the party needs to rebuild its grassroots organisation, restore the confidence of its cadre in the leadership, convince people that the Congress has a political future and reconstruct itself as the leading party of the Opposition. The BJY, along with the Congress organisational elections scheduled next month, can play an effective role in instilling a sense of confidence both in the Congress party cadre and the voter disillusioned with the BJP.

The Congress president's slot may go to any of the senior leaders, but without the party saying so in public, Rahul Gandhi is undoubtedly the prime ministerial face of the Congress for 2024. However, it might be best for Congress and the Opposition to go into the 2024 election without naming their prime ministerial candidate. Naming anyone as the challenger against Prime Minister Narendra Modi would mean eagerly falling into the trap that the BJP has set for the Opposition. Any challenger will be unable to take on the presidential-mode election juggernaut of the BJP. Instead, the BJP will have to be fought in the regions, in their towns and villages, led by skilful regional leaders in their respective states. Electoral arithmetic and political compromises after the election will better decide who is best suited to lead the Opposition if it secures a majority.

The difficulty is that today the revival of the Congress is not dependent on any one leader, let alone Rahul Gandhi. Instead, it is contingent on mobilising discontentment of the people with the incumbent dispensation on a host of national and local issues. These include unhappiness with its economic policies, rising inequity, unease with the fratricidal tensions created in the name of religion, rising youth unemployment, price rise, disastrous farm policies, and labour laws hostile to workers.

The success of the BJY will depend on how many people join the yatra on these issues and how spontaneously. Bussing-in crowds cannot be the measure of mass support for the BJY. Will the Congress be able to sustain the initial enthusiasm and mass response as the yatra progresses further north, where its mass base is weaker? Most importantly, will its marcher-in-chief Rahul Gandhi have the endurance to march all the way, and will he have the good sense to avoid making statements that will be fodder for the BJP propaganda machine?