Roadmap for Kashmir & beyond

MICROVIEW

In a few weeks from now, both cricket and national elections will be out of the way. No matter who wins the elections (the Pakistanis, obligingly, have been letting us walk all over them on the cricket field so far), one thing is certain: the new government will face pressure from Pakistan, the US and the international community for forward movement on Kashmir. It's time to have one ready.

Not only because of the pressures from without, but because India needs one. We need to look at Kashmir, Pakistan, South Asia, and India itself, with a new, long-term strategic lens.

Our world view should flow from two broad realities. One is globalisation, which is forcing countries and companies to think of the whole world as one market "" as one source of resources. All resources "" capital and people "" will move across borders, virtually if not physically, depending on demand or demographic pressures.

As jobs move back and forth, politicians "" reflecting popular worries "" will try and curb the power of non-state entities like MNCs. Socially, the worry is about both jobs and ethnic and religious identities, leading to tension and angst (with terrorism as its extreme manifestation).

It is foolish to think that these broad realities are not related. Globalisation, with its ability to move jobs, people, culture and economic power across borders, is both stoking and soothing the fires of ethnic tension. The same prospect of business that makes Pakistani and Indian businessmen desire peace between the two countries can also disrupt peace when jobs are seen to vanish in uncompetitive sectors.

The same forces of globalisation will be at work in Kashmir, too (unless it wants to survive in splendid isolation), and all parties have to come to terms with them "" India, Pakistan, the rest of South Asia and the Kashmiris themselves. I suggest three principles that should inform the core of any roadmap on Kashmir.

• Whichever way we decide to solve Kashmir, it cannot be dealt with as a territorial or sectarian issue. Kashmir has to be secular and guarantee equal rights to all people within it. Its future cannot be determined on the basis of local religious majorities.

The idea of self-determination in one bit of territory is perverse in a globalising world where people of various ethnicities will move across borders for various reasons. At what level then does one grant the right of self-determination? The whole of Kashmir? Just the Valley? Why not every district in the Valley? Self-determination is, in fact, a form of narrow-mindedness where we are giving people the right to say 'I don't like your kind, so I will form another country.'

In the economic sphere, Kashmir needs see itself as part of the South Asian common market. And this applies to Pakistan, Bangladesh and the remaining Indian states, too. To deliver growth and greater wealth to citizens, all states need to bring down economic barriers. But they also need greater fiscal autonomy.

So the real issue is not greater autonomy to Kashmir alone, but greater decentralisation of economic decision-making to all sub-national state entities in the whole sub-continent. This is what will keep ethnic tensions in check.

Article 370 will become irrelevant the minute all states get greater taxation and policy-making powers. Perhaps, C Rangarajan, who heads the 12th finance commission, should be given a more radical brief to devolve economic power to the states and below.

Kashmiris themselves have to become less xenophobic if they want a solution. Living cheek-by-jowl with other Indians, it is easy to see Indian intentions as a problem for now. But will Kashmir develop itself by ignoring the most important source of capital and markets for the state? Just as Indian business is going to be in Kashmir, Kashmiri businessmen will, over time, also do business elsewhere in India and the world. While it is fair for Kashmiris to seek transition time to adjust to competition, self-denying xenophobia is not going to help. Mufti Sayeed's property bill is just the kind of silly law Kashmir doesn't need.

In a global village, Kashmiris are sometimes going to marry non-Kashmiris, and vice-versa. Kashmir cannot develop by denying property rights to the people who want settle or do business in Kashmir.

A Kashmir which sees itself as a multi-ethnic and self-governing entity in a South Asian context will have fewer problems with its core identity than one that artificially seeks to distinguish itself on the basis of a local religious majority. It will, thus, have to reverse the ethnic cleansing that pushed the Pandits out of the valley.

However, one core issue will have to be addressed even if Kashmiris start moving in the right direction. No matter what Gen Musharraf may claim, the real 'core' issue between India and Pakistan is not Kashmir, but the nature of the Pakistani state.

As long as the Pakistani state sees itself as Islamic, and not one meant to serve all its citizens, Kashmir will remain difficult to solve. The roadmap for Kashmir has to be accompanied by a roadmap for the secularisation of Pakistan.

rjagann@business-standard.com