Satyavrat Mishra: Trouble brewing in Bihar

The BJP might have the last laugh as ruling Grand Alliance partner RJD criticises the Nitish Kumar-led government

"Fizul mein na bole (don't speak needlessly)," snapped Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) chief Lalu Prasad in Bihar last week. "If you don't understand issues, go home and rest. Don't speak unnecessarily to help TV channels raise their TRPs."

Prasad made the comments, which were directed at RJD colleagues, during a media conference after he was asked about the remarks made by his trusted lieutenant and right-hand man, former rural development minister Raghuvansh Prasad Singh. Singh had launched a broadside against the state government headed by Nitish Kumar over rising crime. On December 26, two engineers working on a road construction project in Darbhanga were murdered. Then, another engineer was found dead in Vaishali district. On December 28, panic gripped Kahalgaon in Bhagalpur district after the supervisor of a construction company was shot dead while returning home. On December 29, an engineering student was kidnapped and a ransom of Rs 5 lakh was demanded for his release. There was a general feeling that lawlessness had returned.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the state was not prepared to sit silent. "Incidents are happening non-stop and the people of Bihar are living in terror. The image of Bihar is being tarnished," said BJP leader Sushil Modi. Rajiv Pratap Rudy was equally trenchant: "I don't know if the people of Bihar deserved this. The question may be best posed to Nitish Kumar and much better to Lalu Prasad. Is this what they got a mandate for?"

More than the BJP, it was ally RJD's attack that has left the Janata Dal- United (JD-U) reeling. "It seems as if the RJD is supporting the BJP's charges rather than supporting the government," a JD-U leader said. "We have taken serious note of it."

Why did Singh speak in the first place? Because Prasad himself tendered some friendly advice to the chief minister. "The police should be given a free hand in controlling law and order," Prasad was reported as saying. To this, Kumar is believed to have replied that Laluji's advice was precious and that the government would strive to act on it.

Prasad's criticism of the government, however constructive, was a signal for others in the RJD to take up the refrain. Hence Singh's riposte. But if the RJD thought it could get away with this, it was wrong. The JD-U responded with ferocity, with party leaders saying Singh had, in his advanced age, lost his marbles ("satiya gaye hain"). The war of attrition, it seemed, had begun.

At the heart of the war are the unsatiated desires of the RJD. After being out of power for years in Bihar, the party bounced back in the 2015 Assembly elections, winning the most seats in the Maha Gathbandhan (Grand Alliance). The RJD finished with a strike rate of nearly 80 per cent - it won eight out of every 10 seats it contested. By contrast, the JD-U's strike rate was just above 70 per cent, and the Congress', 66 per cent. The RJD and the BJP contested against each other in 74 seats. Apart from winning 54 of the contests against the BJP, the RJD made up the rest of its tally by sweeping all but one of the seats it contested against the other constituents of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Victory against the NDA is a badge of honour the RJD takes seriously.

But after all this, who becomes chief minister? Nitish Kumar. So elements in the RJD feel that while Kumar may be the CM, the real CM is Prasad. The party was quick to voice this view. Moves made by Prasad reinforced this feeling: He appointed trusted advisors to guide and educate his sons in government functioning. Sudhir Kumar, Prasad's most trusted lieutenant, was appointed public works department (PWD) secretary to hold Prasad's son, Tejaswi Yadav's hand, who has the PWD portfolio. Similarly, R K Mahajan, another trusted bureaucrat during the Prasad era, was made health secretary to help the other son, Tej Pratap Yadav, who is now health minister. The feeling was that Kumar would be deposed but only when Prasad's sons were good and ready. In the meantime, Kumar must bow before Prasad in running the government - for the JD-U was the junior partner, after all.

JD-U is not used to taking dictation from anyone; understandably it is restive. It is the BJP which is having the last laugh, striking a distinctly "I told you so" tone. "The alliance is not a natural one. We had warned that jungle raj would be back. It has begun even earlier than we thought" said a BJP leader.

In all fairness, the new empowerment of the Prasad supporter is not yet making itself felt in rural areas: The Yadavs are still savouring their victory and having been out of the power structure for so long, do not want to jeopardise their supremacy just yet. But the BJP predicts that it is a matter of time. Meanwhile, Kumar is doing his best to do his work as efficiently as he can. Bihar is unlikely to be a stable place in the months to come.