If the near-stagnation in annual wheat production at around 80 million tonnes in the past few years had signalled the plateauing of this staple cereal’s yield, the spectacular rebound in its output in 2010-11 should partly dispel that apprehension. The latest official reckoning puts the wheat output this year at 85.93 million tonnes, 5.2 million tonnes, or six per cent, higher than the 80.7 million tonnes in 2009-10.
Significantly, much of this increase is the result of a rise in per-hectare productivity rather than an expansion in crop area. Favourable weather, in terms of rainfall and temperature, also made a contribution. The 2010-11 acreage and production numbers suggest that the average wheat productivity surged perceptibly to 2.94 tonnes a hectare, from 2.83 tonnes in 2009-10. At this level, India’s average wheat productivity is comparable with that of the US’ at 2.6 tonnes, though it is far below China’s at 4.7 tonnes.
Indian wheat scientists, who had assembled in New Delhi recently for an annual workshop, seemed confident that wheat production can be pushed up further. The Karnal-based Directorate of Wheat Research (DWR), which coordinates the wheat research in different research centres and agricultural universities, is formulating strategies to achieve the target of producing 100 million tonnes of wheat in 2030. DWR Project Director Indu Sharma’s in-depth analysis of the past wheat output trends and the threats and opportunities for boosting its outturn presented at the meet sought to outline the future of wheat in India.
Scientists know that incremental production has to come largely through rise in productivity since the land available to grow this crop may shrink with time. Besides, they know they will also have to cope with the depletion of critical natural resources like water and soil fertility, along with the unpredictable impact of climate change.
This apart, their hands are going to be tied due to the growing concerns about the use of chemicals, including fertilisers and pesticides, and the increasing opposition to technology — notably biotechnology that is vital in reshaping the crop’s genetic make-up to boost its innate productivity.
Thankfully, several avenues to enhance wheat productivity are still open despite these constraints. One way is to bridge the gap between the actual average yield and the potential yield that can be obtained with technology that is already available and has been successfully tried out. This schism exists not only between the average crop yields in the agriculturally-progressive and backward states, but also between the yields obtained by progressive and other farmers within each state. Bringing crop productivity in laggard areas on par a with progressive areas through technology induction can substantially enhance the overall wheat production.
Front-line technology demonstrations conducted in farmers’ fields by research organisations have indicated that there is scope for raising wheat production through this route even in states like Punjab and Haryana, which lead the country in wheat productivity. The actual yields harvested by farmers in these states are generally two to four quintals lower than what is obtained at these demonstrations. The gap between the yields in farmers’ fields and technology demonstrations is as large as around six quintals in Uttar Pradesh, about eight quintals in Madhya Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Jharkhand, and over 14 quintals in Chhattisgarh.
This apart, some of the novel science-based agronomic practices, like precision farming and conservation agriculture, can help achieve the twin objectives of enhancing crop productivity and preserving natural resources. Zero tillage or minimum tillage technique, planting seeds on raised crop beds and laser land-levelling are among the key new technologies for this purpose. Fortunately, these practices are fast gaining popularity in intensive wheat-growing areas like Punjab, Haryana, western Uttar Pradesh and parts of Rajasthan.
However, regardless of the availability of such means to elevate wheat production, it is necessary to breed varieties that can withstand stress caused by diseases (notably wheat rusts) and the escalating risks posed by climate change-driven events like drought, flood and temperature fluctuations. For this, locating genes capable of imparting resilience against such stresses and incorporating them into the wheat plant through the safe and risk-free use of biotechnological tools is imperative.