T C A Srinivasa-Raghavan: That little cloud on the horizon

It is time to start worrying about succession in the major political parties

A few days ago, a friend and I were talking about two recent books on India's economic future. One is by the former editor of this newspaper about whom another colleague once said, "He can make the numbers sing". The other is by an economist from Oxford and is more of a contemplative hum that sometimes turns into a mumble.

Be that as it may, I think the time has come for us to stop worrying about India's economic future. The economy, when all is said and done, is a dependent variable. What happens to it depends not just on we do but also, to an extent that we have not taken cognisance of, the butterfly that flaps its wings in Peru.

What worries me, I told my friend, is India's political future. Not all this drawing room talk about the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh and the Bharatiya Janata Party and Hindutva, and the Muslims and Islam, and caste and Laloo Prasad Yadav and secularism and socialism and what not.

Those things are no doubt important but only because our politics is largely about identities. That is inevitable in democracies which, in the name of political choice, divide, society along this line or that.

Donald Trump or Brexit; caste or religion; poor or rich; they all are, as they say in Punjab, ikkoi gal, Shahji. You divide not to rule but to win.

My worry is different. It is about succession in the major political parties. No one talks about it loudly but believe me, India's political stability may well be in for some nasty jolts over the next decade.

Just consider. We have the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in Tamil Nadu; the Biju Janata Dal in Odisha; the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal; the Janata Dal (United) in Bihar; Mayawati in Uttar Pradesh; Telugu Desam Party in Andhra; Telangana Rashtra Samiti in Telangana. And, of course, we have that dear old pishima, the Congress party.

You know what the political coverage of these parties is. You know, too, that there is no politically effective successor or even no successor.

If political "scientists" and those who write pompous columns in newspapers devoted as much time to worrying about the succession issue in these parties as they do to the RSS, BJP, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and all that, they would, be assured, be wetting their pants.

The problem that looms like a little cloud on the horizon, which can be a sign of the storm that is coming can be stated straightforwardly: None of the parties I have mentioned above, bar the DMK in a mild sense, has a successor to the current supremo. Economists, who worry about infrastructure, macroeconomics, education, health etc, should be worrying about what this political prospect is doing to business confidence.

Businessmen need a stable political environment and it is in danger of slowly vanishing in many states over the next decade or so. Everyone hopes that the current leaders will live to be a hundred, but as we have seen in the case of the DMK even that could be a problem.

The DMK at least has M K Stalin as a possible successor if M Karunanidhi's health holds out. But, what about all the others? What will the BJD, TDP, BSP and TMC do? How are they planning their succession?

The fact that there is a son or a daughter is no guarantee of anything perhaps except enhanced looting of the exchequer. Parents will be parents and they like to provide for the possible unemployment of their children.

Dynasty, after all, has its limits.

What this means

No institution that fails to provide for a succession plan lasts for long. Most, therefore, provide for it but it is an amazing feature of Indian politics that except for the BJP, the rest don't have anything by way of a plan except perhaps their fertility. And even that is missing in some parties, regardless whether they are led by men or women.

There is, therefore, a very strong likelihood of prolonged instability in several states, when the time comes to hand over the leadership baton. This will happen at different times in different states and not in the same way in all of them.

But that it will happen is certain, and businessmen with major investments in such states should be prepared for a period of instability. A phase of several states going through a political vacuum seems inevitable.

This is where the BJP's big chance lies. If it behaves itself in the way it conducts its social policies, it can replace the Congress as the default party in these states.