The math behind an election

Social media or number game, what will drive the 2014 election?

For someone as number-deficient and tech-challenged as me, there's little comfort in being told that the next general elections (touted as a game changer in the polity) will be decided by numbers and IT!

Two very bright young men from different political affiliations possessing degrees from the world's best universities, whom I met separately over the past few weeks, attempted to explain why this was so.

The first, a highly regarded management expert with connections with BJP, made an interesting argument: on being told that there were a lot of voters who will be compelled to choose the lesser evil (between a corrupt ruling coalition and an unsecular, but relatively clean, opposition), he attempted to divest us of the notion that the choice was so simple.

"This myth that UPA is secular and pro-minority has to be examined in the cold light of day," he said to a group of largely liberal and middle-class professionals. "They are not and never have been minority friendly. It is, for its members and associates, nothing but a cynical calculation."

How so, we asked.
"That's because the Congress and its allies have done some number crunching and reached the conclusion that the two most significant minorities have demonstrated the highest voter turnout in elections. Its spin doctors have concluded that tickets are distributed on this basis," he said.

"Not only does this mean that a pro-minority, secular platform will garner more votes, but their second strategy - a more diabolical one - is what wins them elections," he said.

And that is?
"They split the majority vote by fielding candidates from the same caste/class/ethnic combine of the opposition's candidate," he said adding, "It's nothing to do with their so-called championing of minority rights or a secular plank."

Which, of course, led us, his motley group of listeners, to ask what the arithmetic is when UPA loses elections. But the noted management consultant and NDA sympathiser was called away before he could explain this phenomena.

The second gentleman, a bright young MBA from Harvard, was convinced that the next general elections would be won through social media, the Internet and communications.

"I was in America when this relatively unknown candidate - a black man with a name like Obama was working his way up the Democrat nominations," he said. "A group of us young people began attending his meetings and paying attention to his strategy," he said. "He never gave up talking to people - addressing crowds, holding townhall meetings, and reaching out through social networking sites. To trump the Clintons - two of the cleverest politicians in the world -that's the result of this strategy," he said. "India's next general elections will be decided on who communicates the best".

In his excellently argued column in the Indian Express this Friday ('Socially networked election'), Baijayant 'Jay' Panda, a Lok Sabha MP from Odhisa's Biju Janata Dal, makes a somewhat similar argument: "The skyrocketing number of Indians using social media points to a stunning conclusion. By 2014, they will be more numerous than the total votes garnered by any one party in 2009." He writes, "The study by the IRIS Knowledge Foundation and the Internet and Mobile Association of India makes some compelling arguments about the impact this can have on voting, not just directly, but even more so by mobilising volunteers and supporters."

Numbers or IT? With all these bright young men lending their expertise, the next elections are going to be a game changer in more ways than one!

Malavika Sangghvi is a Mumbai-based writer malavikasangghvi@hotmail.com