The 'stunner' from India

India's rooftop solar installations are a little over 10% of the 40-Gw target set for 2022

There are five headlines from last month — including a key one from India — that have set the stage for what we can expect in 2021 in the world of green power and sustainability.

Solar power at Rs 2

In an auction conducted by Solar Energy Corporation of India, a record low solar tariff of Rs 2 (2.7 US cents) per unit of power was discovered. The three winners were from Asia: Saudi Arabia’s Aljomaih Energy and Water, the Indian unit of Singapore’s Sembcorp Industries, and NTPC. BloombergNEF (BNEF) identified 12 reasons “ranging from a tender-specific exemption in annual fee, to potential gain in yield from deploying bifacial modules with single-axis trackers” that enabled the record to be set.

Cheap capital and even cheaper panels will continue to drive the expansion of low-cost solar across the world. In fact, BNEF projects that there will be more than 200 Gw (gigawatts) of solar plants in 2022, setting a record for global installations. Despite the pandemic, solar built this year is likely to surpass last year’s number, with estimates ranging from 120 to 140 Gw.

Rooftop solar boom

About a third of households already have a rooftop solar installation in Australia, and the country is likely to end the year with record installations of close to 3 Gw. The two key drivers for that are: Abundant sunlight and cost-reflective power tariffs. “Australian families and businesses are adopting new energy technologies like rooftop solar at record-breaking rates, and we expect this trend will continue for the foreseeable future,” Energy Minister Angus Taylor said in a media release last week.

India’s rooftop solar installations are a little over 10 per cent of the 40-Gw target set for 2022. As regulatory and policy hurdles are cleared, and as power tariffs are rationalised, expect to see more rooftops in the country covered by solar.

In 2021, the discussions will intensify on managing the surge of solar during the day, and its impact on power prices as well as on other competing sources of power. 

Green power edge

Sony may relocate its factories from Japan unless policies are eased to allow the company to access renewable energy, according to a news report in the Financial Times last month. What this means is: Countries where it is easy to get access to green power, and where that green power is competitively priced, will have an edge in attracting investments over countries where that is not the case.

Access to green power is high on the agenda of technology companies like Apple and Amazon that have committed to aggressive climate targets. Microsoft aims to be carbon-negative by 2030.

In India, in addition to expanding renewables use, Amazon intends to have 10,000 electric vehicles — three-wheelers and four-wheelers — in its delivery fleet by 2025. The company also has a target to have 100,000 such vehicles in its global fleet by 2030.

Banned from 2030

The UK aims to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars from 2030 in a bid to promote electric vehicles. It joins a handful of European countries which are working on a similar time frame for phasing out conventional passenger vehicles. The only country with a more ambitious target is Norway, with a date of 2025.

This is part of the UK’s “10 Point Plan for a Green Industrial Revolution”. It is a very ambitious goal, given that electric vehicles made up only 3.2 per cent of passenger vehicle sales in the UK in 2019. To support this effort, £2 billion ($2.7 billion) will be spent on electric vehicle subsidies, charging infrastructure and electric vehicle and battery manufacturing.

Expect more countries to raise their electric mobility ambitions in 2021. Carmakers are responding by expanding their portfolio of electric car models, while scaling back developing conventional vehicles. The share of electric vehicles in total sales of leading carmakers will also continue to rise. 

India’s electrification of mobility will likely be led by buses, three-wheelers, and two-wheelers, though a handful of electric passenger car models are available, and a few are slotted for launch over the next few months.

Dogger Bank

The world’s biggest offshore wind farm, being developed off the east coast of England, achieved financial closure last month for the first 2.4 Gw of capacity — involving an investment of $8 billion. The plant is being developed by UK utility SSE and Norway’s Equinor. The project will use giant 13-megawatt turbines from General Electric that reach up 248 metres.

BNEF sees offshore wind crossing the 10-Gw annual global installations milestone in 2024. Onshore wind installations are seen setting a record this year, and next, when almost 70 Gw of plants are expected to be commissioned.

The writer is editor, global policy for BloombergNEFvgombar@bloomberg.net