Trump in blunderland

President Donald Trump revealing classified information to the Russian foreign minister and his unceremonious firing of the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, James Comey, are just the latest of the continuing aftershocks six months past the American presidential election and four months into the new presidential term. And the entity most affected by these tectonic events and in the midst of them is none other than Mr Trump himself. Some of these include seemingly inexplicable flip-flops on America’s positions vis-a-vis its allies in Asia and Europe, and its supposed adversaries Russia, China and North Korea. I had discussed some of these a year ago in these pages when it became evident that Mr Trump would be the Republican candidate, even though I did not expect him to win (With his own China shop, Business Standard, May 9, 2017).

The biggest shock Mr Trump suffered was on winning the elections. He, like millions of others all over the world, had expected a Hillary Clinton victory. This is evident from his oft-repeated quip, “I won, didn’t I?” It is frequently followed by references to his (mythical) majority — he lost the popular vote by a margin of three million — and his “so good” poll numbers, which are actually falling and the worst for any president in a honeymoon period.  It is as if the president is pinching himself to see if he has not dreamt his own success! 

The other, equally shell-shocked group comprises those who cannot come to terms with the triumph of the maverick impresario-builder over the quintessentially machine politician (albeit a dyed-in-the-wool liberal), Ms Clinton — the Democrats, most of the establishment media, academics, intellectuals and some just plain decent folks. Their reaction is either of two extremes: Find ways of removing Mr Trump from office — read impeachment — or sheer resignation. Many of my classmates from Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay, now solid American citizens in contented retirement after highly successful professional careers, are appalled by what has happened since Mr Trump assumed office. They confess to counting the days and years to 2024, when his second term (if he gets it) will end. And they are by no means only ones so thinking. 

It is quite unlikely that Mr Trump will be impeached in the near term, for several reasons. First, as former Republican Congressman Bob Barr, who was among the leaders of the impeachment process against Bill Clinton in the House of Representatives in 1998, said, while he was personally against many of the Trump misdemeanours, their body may not yet have reached the tipping point of impeachment. But it seems to be getting there, rather soon in the Trump term. 

Second, we must remember that in the 1960s and 1970s, the American public opinion had got to the point of revulsion in case of the war in South-east Asia and the Watergate scandal, respectively. That made it possible for it to entertain the unthinkable: Question and punish the presidency and its occupant even to the extent of removal, either by an electoral process or by impeachment. That position is still away at the present juncture in the Trump presidency, so the clamour for removal, which may have begun, does not quite resonate with the majority as yet. The support base that Mr Trump enjoyed earlier seems fairly intact. Attempts at impeachment will antagonise this sizeable population and make the process harder. But how long and how much of this support will last is questionable in view of the daily unravelling of the Trump White House.

So what happens now? To gaze into that crystal ball, we need some understanding of what makes Mr Trump what he is. First, he has no respect for truth, because he has no notion of truth. His sole concern at all times is to stay on the right side of the law, just barely, and avoid criminality, at least overtly. He did that in running his business and is doing it again as president. Second, he has no concern for propriety or consistency because he does not understand them. He can change his stance on anything at any time if that gets him even a tiny advantage. That is again a carry-forward from his business days. Calling names, making baseless allegations and stating fantasies as (alternate) facts is the done thing. Finally, fairness means nothing to him. His sole preoccupation is with himself. No wonder he committed a Freudian slip in describing Mr Comey as a “showboat” and “grandstander,” because it takes one to know one.   

He has all along surrounded himself with mediocrities (he will not recognise talent if it hit him with the force of speeding tractor-trailer), whom he has paid way beyond their abilities and threatened if not fired instantly when they make even the slightest murmur of dissent. That is how he ran his business and that is how he is running his administration. To say that there has never been an occupant of the White House of this kind is but stating the obvious. 

All of this is of extreme discomfiture to that most exclusive of all clubs, the Washington DC power elite. Mr Trump thinks nothing of insulting them directly and worse, through his tweets. Without a doubt, the present murmurs will grow. When that happens, Mr Trump is unlikely to fight. His yearning for the “good life” he left behind would most probably make him strike a deal with the Republicans and Vice-President Mike Pence for an unconditional pardon before he retires to Trump Towers in some never-never land, New York City, Mar-a-Lago or even the Emirates.

This deconstruction of Mr Trump must end on a sombre note. He controls the mightiest military machine the world has ever known with numerous weapons of mass destruction. His words and actions so far give no hint of his having any compunction in using them. 
 

The writer is an economist