UP: Where to from elections?

The task of the new government is uphill in economic and social terms

Crossing the 75 per cent mark by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the Uttar Pradesh (UP) legislative elections was perhaps surprising but their obtaining a majority was not. It reflected better speeches and extensive promises to the electorate. The secret of success was generating trust in the prime minister that he would keep his promises. It is now for the chief minister to deliver. Such a fundamental shake up leads, naturally, to curiosity as to where UP stands today compared, or in contrast, to other major states (typically the 15 major states).  

I begin with selected economic indicators in Table 1. The latest data are from the 2010-15 period varying across indicators. First, per capita income of UP is just about half the Indian average; and UP is ranked 14th out of 15. On the one hand, I would conclude that, beginning from such a low point, UP’s returns to every rupee expended – its marginal output – should be high. On the other, UP would have to undertake actual investment spending and cut out leakages to get any significant output impact. For example, a presumptive indicator of production is electricity use. UP’s per capita electricity consumption remains less than half of the Indian average and it is ranked 13th out of 15.  

UP has been primarily an agricultural state and, significantly, its agriculture rankings are good. In terms of holdings below 1 hectare, it is fourth. It is as high as third in net irrigated area in proportion to net area sown. Cropping intensity is sixth and consumption of fertiliser seventh. Productivity in wheat and rice is ranked fourth and eighth, respectively.

  

For a state with comparative advantage in agriculture, what is the efficacy of promising to give 90 per cent of jobs generated (presumably in the organised sector) to UP. In particular when, per lakh of population, UP is ranked 14th in the average number of workers per day in registered factories. Why attempt to shift an established advantage in agriculture to find another one, a fallacy encountered in many failed development models? Instead, success has to be embedded in modernising agriculture and landholdings and in making youth proud and informed about the science, engineering and business of agriculture. 

Again, for the UP economy to pick up, bank credit has to be made available for economic activity. The latest data reveal that UP’s credit-deposit ratio is just over half India’s average and UP is ranked 13th. It is good that government has promised to forgive agricultural debt. As I have said earlier, recoupment should come from large corporations or proprietors.  

Table 2 examines UP’s socio-economic indicators compared to the Indian average. It cuts a sorry picture. Except for the number of primary and secondary schools per 100,000 of population where it is ranked in the middle, it languishes at the bottom in other indicators. For example, for high schools, it is 14th; while the Indian average is 17 high schools per 100,000 of population, UP can count only nine. UP’s literacy rank is only 12th. Two conclusions can be drawn. First, proportionately less students enter high school after secondary school compared to most other states and, second, there is proportionately less students with high school diplomas available for organised sector employment. Thus, monitoring of teacher-student attendance would comprise a beginning.  

Regarding health, the number of government hospitals and beds available per lakh of population are both significantly less than half the India average, with rankings of 14 and 13, respectively. Vital statistics are equally low, a ranking of 15 for birth rate, 11 for death rate, and 14 for infant mortality rate. Filling in the 25 per cent vacant medical positions would be a start.

Thus, UP’s economic and socio-economic challenges are immense. Perhaps the changed colour of the new administration will magically alter the ability and facts of public service delivery and successfully achieve economic growth. As argued above, the answer cannot be naïve. It involves strategy and economic comprehension.  

It would remain incomplete if I did not mention the hospitality I received from Yogi Adityanath in his Gorakhnathdham. It was a mellow evening during which he oversaw my dinner. My memories are cordial. He then sent me through the meandering temple complex with a young guide who took me through various spots including a wide marked area where Bhima had rested. I realised that the surreal world of beliefs and practices typical of Western declared religions extends to segments of our own culture and religion. Now economic delivery is at stake. The Yogi’s clean reputation for resource use is established from local accounts. I hope he can deliver.

*Years varying from 2010-11 to 2015-16. Note: Ranking of Uttar Pradesh among 15 major states. # UP: India. Source: Annual Plan 2016-17, Planning Department, Government of Uttar Pradesh.

Source: Annual Plan 2016-17, Planning Department, Government of Uttar Pradesh.