Why even a UP win won't stem the current regime's slide

Given the magnitude of unemployment, it will be difficult to resolve regardless of whoever becomes chief minister of UP

There has been much speculation about the political fallout of the Uttar Pradesh (UP) election on the pivotal position Prime Minister Narendra Modi enjoys in Indian politics. But an emerging constellation of circumstances suggests that a victory may not stem the erosion of his leadership, at home and abroad. The problems of UP, already intractable, have been compounded by other adverse developments.

For example, no government can solve the problem of youth unemployment quickly enough. Yogi Adityanath’s claims that the unemployment rate has come down to 5.41 per cent in May-August 2021 from more than 17 per cent under the SP government in 2016, have been exposed by Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). For one thing, the base year for comparison should have been 2017, when the Yogi government came to power. The unemployment rate in 2017 was 3.75 per cent, much lower than the figure of 5.41 per cent in 2021.

Moreover, the CMIE data shows, the fall in unemployment figures between 2016 and 2017 was not because of jobs added but due to large numbers of people opting out of the labour market because there were no jobs to be had. Between 2016 and 2017 the Labour Force Participation Rate (percentage of working age population of 15-years-plus either employed or looking for employment) fell from 46.32 per cent to 38.4 per cent – perhaps because of recessionary conditions following Demonetisation. The LFPR fell further to 34.91 per cent in May-August 2021.  Given this magnitude of unemployment, it will be difficult to resolve regardless of whoever becomes the chief Minister of UP.

The problem of stray cattle is equally tricky. UP has about 12 lakh stray cattle and neither fudging of figures nor government promises of monetising cow-dung have helped. In fact, public anger is so high on the issue that farmers in Barabanki released hundreds of stray cattle at the site of Yogi Adityanath’s election rally after officials claimed that 44 of its 75 districts were free of the problem. The prime minister has promised a plan for dealing with stray cattle to be unveiled after the election is over – admitting that neither Delhi nor Lucknow had addressed the issue for the last five years.

The problem was created by the Central government’s notification of May 23, 2017 criminalising cattle trade for non-agricultural purposes. It was an ideological decision that gave rise to a militant cadre of cow vigilantes that terrorised those dealing in cow products from beef to leather, mainly Muslims and Dalits. While the order was withdrawn by November 2017 due to political opposition, UP used the ordinance route to ramp up punishments under the UP Prevention of Cow Slaughter Act 1955.

Government’s solutions for the stray cattle problem through creating cattle pens, gobar gas or ‘beauty products’ and ‘health drinks’ from cow urine have not been able to solve the problem. Reversal of the notification however is beyond the reach of Prime Minister Modi as that would dethrone the cow from the ideological pole position that it occupies. The promise to solve the stray cattle problem can never go beyond an election jumla (rhetoric) in the hands of the BJP.

Farmer discontent too is likely to remain on the boil after the UP elections. The Centre has assured Parliament that it will form the promised committee on minimum support prices (MSP) after this round of state elections are over. However, there are differences over the committee’s mandate. The farmers want statutory guaranteed MSP for agricultural crops while the government wants the committee to recommend changes in “the cropping pattern, to make MSP more effective and transparent, and to encourage natural farming.” Farmers are also concerned about the upcoming free trade agreements with Australia and Canada because of their likely adverse impact on the dairy sector.

Further, in Punjab and Haryana, farmers are agitated by the Centre’s decision to remove the representatives of the two states from the Bhakra Beas Management Board (BBMB) which controls the irrigation and power projects on the Sutlej and Beas rivers. Up to now, the two full-time members of the BBMB – Member (Power) and Member (Irrigation) – were nominated from Punjab and Haryana, respectively. The chairman was appointed from outside the two major stakeholder states to ensure neutrality in power and water sharing (58-42 in favour of Punjab initially, with some share for Himachal and Rajasthan added later). Apprehensive of being cheated of their share of water and power, 25 farmers groups in Punjab have announced protests on March 7. All non-BJP parties in Punjab, are up in arms over the tweaking of BBMB rules. Restive farmers, therefore, are likely to remain a headache for the Modi regime.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine will also compound problems for an economy already reeling under inflation and after-effects of the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic. Already international oil prices have reached $115 per barrel, which could lead to a crippling increase in the retail price of petrol and diesel. India’s oil imports account for a quarter of its total imports and 80 per cent of the total oil requirement is met with imports. Escalating oil prices would slow down economic recovery and push up overall prices, unsettling the public mood and making it prone to spikes of anger against the government.

Students returning from the war-zone in Ukraine pose yet another difficult problem. Their uncertain future resembles the migrant workers who were forced to march back to their villages, with the government showing no indication of helping them to continue their medical education in India. Most importantly, India’s abstention in the UN Security Council and the UN General Assembly will dampen US enthusiasm about India, bringing a new chill in the relationship and erode its standing internationally. World leaders, who have not openly criticised democratic backsliding in India so far, will start calling out the illiberalism of the present regime.

In the domestic context, regardless of a win in UP, Prime Minister Modi would find his unique position undermined by intense street agitations and attacks by the Opposition.