Yogi's latest Hindutva moves: Electoral need or one-upmanship with PM Modi?

Some political observers claim that the UP CM is emerging as the most popular leader in the BJP's "core Hindutva" constituency and that he is tending it carefully

The way Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has turned the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan into yet another moment to signal that the Muslims of UP are potential extremists, is breathtaking, even if it is predictable.

The Taliban captured Kabul on August 15 and two days later Yogi announced the setting up of a training centre for the state’s Anti-Terrorism Squad (ATS) commandos at Deoband, famous for its Islamic seminary, the Darul Uloom. The Darul Uloom’s educational curriculum emphasises moderation, contextual interpretation of religious edicts and co-existence with all other religions.

Drawing a direct link with events in Afghanistan, the Chief Minister’s media advisor, Shalabh Mani Tripathi, announced the inauguration of the facility on Twitter in Hindi, “Amid Taliban savagery, here is a piece of news from UP. Yogi Ji has decided to open a commando training centre in Deoband. The work has started on a war footing.” The state has already allocated 2000 square metres of land.

Tripathi followed up with another tweet attacking those who ‘defend’ terrorists and want cases against them dropped. He tagged a video clip that has a UP police officer saying that similar ATS training centres are planned at Meerut (36% Muslim population), Bahraich (56.7% Muslim population)  and other ‘sensitive’ areas of the state. Two ATS Commando Training Centres in Western UP alone – in Meerut and Deoband – may seem excessive till one realises that this region has 26% to 42% of the Muslim voters of the state. Furthermore, the BJP is threatened by the unity formed across religious lines because of the ongoing farmers’ agitation here.

His decisions have elicited outrage amongst the Deoband clerics and allegations from the Opposition Samajwadi Party (SP) that he wanted to “instil fear” in Muslims. These are fodder for Yogi. The SP’s Shafiqur Rahman Barq, MP from Sambhal, fell into the trap by praising the Taliban and was promptly booked for sedition.

Simultaneously Yogi’s play of righting “historical wrongs” stokes the Hindutva narrative of the majority community being culturally suppressed in medieval times. Thus Aligarh is likely to be renamed “Harigarh” and Sultanpur as “Kush Bhavanpur”. Allahabad has already been renamed Prayagraj, Faizabad district as Ayodhya and Mughalsarai Junction as Pandit Deendayal Upadhyay Junction. In addition, BJP MLAs have demanded renaming Muzaffarnagar as “Laxmi Nagar” and Agra as “Agravan”.

Yogi also seems to be fanning the fires of another demolition/land grab in Mathura. On August 30, on the festival of Janmashtami, he visited the controversial Sri Krishna Janmabhumi temple there, which abuts the rear wall of the Shahi Idgah. He also announced a ban on sale of meat and alcohol in Mathura, summarily asking vendors to sell milk instead. While he made no direct demand for reclaiming the idgah land for the Krishna Janmabhumi Temple, he must have known that once the state foments a sentiment, it can take on a life of its own. In this case it will benefit the BJP by ‘unifying’ Hindus to extend the temple by claiming the land of the Idgah.

Meanwhile, Ayodhya and the construction of the Ram Temple have been kept at a high profile by repeated visits and rumours that he might contest from Ayodhya. The construction of the Vindhyachal Temple Corridor in Mirzapur (not as yet on the renaming list) is also meant to pander to Hindu voters.

Overtly it would seem that these polarising initiatives are directed at getting him re-elected in the assembly polls next year.  But there may be a larger game. The idea of Yogi as a challenger to PM Modi in the 2024 national election, so far just the stuff of supporters’ adulation, has been fuelled by the latest India Today Mood of the Nation Survey. It shows that 11 percent of those surveyed preferred Yogi as the best choice for the next prime minister of the country -- an improvement of 8% in one year. His approval rating was next only to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s whose public approval has precipitously declined from 66% in 2020 to 24%. Yogi was also ahead of his nearest competitor in the BJP, Union Home Minister Amit Shah who had only 7% public approval.

This has led some political observers to claim that Yogi is emerging as the most popular leader in the BJP’s “core Hindutva” constituency and that he is tending it carefully. Those who ascribe Yogi with the ability to displace the leadership of Prime Minister Modi also point to how he has stood his ground and refused to be controlled by Delhi. However this hype may be difficult to square with the fact that his approval rating in UP itself has fallen within a year by a massive 20% -- from 49% to 29%. 

Clearly, a mere 29% approval rating as Chief Minister is not enough for re-election. Yogi still needs the Centre to throw money and freebies at the UP voters. Without these he  will not be able to douse the anger against his mismanagement of the Covid pandemic or the anger of the farmers. For the UP election, Yogi has no choice but to be on the same page as Prime Minister Modi. Modi also needs a victory in UP to build momentum for the 2024 general election. The caste equations in the state do not favour the BJP. Yogi will need to stretch the Hindutva tent over caste fractures. So while Prime Minister Modi plays the caste card by appealing to the OBC (Other Backward Classes) voters and distributing state largesse, Yogi pushes for Hindu unity.

Because the prime minister’s statements have national and international ramifications, Yogi is better placed to package and market aggressive Hindutva. His appeal however is limited to UP. His election rallies in other states have had little impact. He has little to sell except aggressive Hindutva. Unlike him, Prime Minister Modi knows that Hindutva cannot paper over the inequality and diversity of India. It can provide an overarching narrative but it is the populist schemes and the crumbs thrown at the poor that pave the road to power.