Zeros by the dozen

Who could be the trillionaire among us?

The first trillionaire could very well be among us. In its world wealth report, Credit Suisse envisions a scenario where 11 of them are walking the Earth in two generations, implying that the first person worth a thousand billion dollars turns up even sooner. Economic trends will determine if it's a tech wunderkind, hedge fund whiz or resources czar. Globalisation gives an African a shot, but other data mean a Russian is more likely.

In the study's entertaining "what if" synopsis, the world's 11 richest individuals would reach $1 trillion of net worth by 2073. Assuming the mega-wealthy remain as they are today, a compounded economic growth rate of 6.13 per cent would put everyone on the Forbes rich list up to No. 11 Wal-Mart heir Christy Walton and her family there. Distributions, such as they are, mean Carlos Slim and his $70 billion should cross the finish line by 2058.

Of course, it is worth imagining how economic cycles and trajectories might change. The world's monetary situation favours a financier who can take advantage of surplus liquidity. If policies moderate, though, and rapid, non-inflationary growth is powered by technological innovation without massive global redistribution, then Silicon Valley could be the place to look. Heck, it might even be Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg, who would be 74 years old four-and-a-half decades from now. If global inequality can be reduced, continuing to lead poorer countries to grow faster than rich ones, then the first trillionaire might very well arise from an emerging market. Mexico's Slim isn't the only possibility. It could be an Ambani or Mittal from India or someone like Chinese beverage magnate Zong Qinghou, or one of their peers building businesses across the continent. Depending on how things break in Africa, Nigeria's Aliko Dangote, currently worth some $16 billion, stands an outside chance, though he'd need to live to 101.

A long stretch of above-trend inflation would mean even more than the billion millionaires Credit Suisse projects 60 years hence, and would favour an oil or mining tycoon as the world's inaugural trillionaire. Russia, of course, has its fair share of them. What's more, no big country's super-wealthy have shown stronger staying power. Of Russia's 26 billionaires in 2005, 25 of them retained the status in 2010. For now, plan the 12-zero party for Moscow.