BJP banks on alliances to build base in UP

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The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) seems to be in a hurry to form alliances in Uttar Pradesh (UP). It has weaned leaders away from the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and many from the Congress as well. But, such tie-ups come at a price. Which means, existing BJP workers in these regions are conscious that they have two masters. For instance, Brajesh Pathak used to be considered a strong Mayawati loyalist. He is now part of the BJP. Pathak belongs to the Hardoi-Unnao region and got a hero’s welcome when he crossed over — even more than Swami Prasad Maurya, the other big BSP leader who’d crossed over to the saffron party.

The question, then, is: If Pathak is to be given the BJP ticket, what happens to the BJP contender from the region? This is the question political analysts are asking themselves in Lucknow. Anupriya Patel, leader of the Apna Dal in eastern UP, the BJP’s pre-poll ally, is going to lay claim to around 40 seats out of 403. The little-known Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party, which had one per cent vote share in the 2012 UP polls, has also done a pre-poll alliance with the BJP.

According to insiders, anyone who is considered a ‘big leader’ crossing the floor either from SP or BSP is welcome in the BJP. “There is going to be a massive outbreak of war in the BJP when the tickets are given out,” says a BJP worker.

The party hasn’t declared its chief ministerial candidate for the state — and it is unlikely to announce one. Seven to eight rallies are going to be addressed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the state. Four Parivartan Yatras from four corners of the state have been launched and they will all converge in Lucknow on December 24, at a rally that Modi will address. Modi is the face of the party’s campaign in UP.  Akhilesh Yadav is quick to capitalise on this. “My government has got schools and roads built, and provided electricity among other things. If the BJP has done one thing, if Modiji has done one thing (for the development of the state), please tell me… I leave it to your judgement,” he says.

In riposte, the BJP is trying to highlight the smaller communities from the most backward classes who have suffered oppression from the Yadavs and are ready to be seen as Hindus rather than be identified as those belonging to backward castes.

Two small but influential castes — the Pasi and the Khatik — are scheduled castes but in counterpoise to the Chamars and Jatavs who are Mayawati’s mainstay. In Hardoi, for instance, the Jan Sangh first won in the 1952 election, because the Pasis supported it defying the Chamars. The BJP believes this will have a significant impact.  The party is realistic about its prospects — that it might not get the votes to form a government in UP.

But, it also knows that as long as Mulayam Singh Yadav is inactive, the SP cannot on the strength of Akhilesh’s appeal alone make it. The split in the SP, too, suits BJP. It is organising 92 conventions of women in every zila. Youth mobilisation is also on. As long as it can balance the equations between the newcomers to the party and its traditional workers, it says its strength will grow slowly but surely.