Congress faction-ridden, Goa headed for a hung Assembly

With an average voter count of 27,000 per constituency, last-moment swings of votes may be important

Traversing the streets of Panjim, Goa’s capital and its political hotbed, one hardly gets the election feel. The state went to the polls on Saturday and while in the last few days before the elections there were rallies and political heavy-weights from Delhi descended on this quaint town, one could hardly spot an election hoarding, a cut-out or even posters.

A senior bureaucrat smiles. “In accordance with the Election Commission of India order, there is a law against defacing property; and no one can paint the walls of buildings in party colours. While this rule applies to the country, in Goa elections have always been like this — silent and peaceful; nothing to compare with the shrillness of the UP or Tamil Nadu elections.”

The outskirts of Panjim, however, sport more election colours; in fact, posters of the new entrant to Goa politics, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), are the most visible. And why not, if sources are to be believed, the Delhi-headquartered party has sent more than 30,000 volunteers (each with a daily spending quota) to campaign in Goa.

Ramesh Naik, a college student in Panjim, was sporting an AAP cap as he parked his scooter across the Azaad Maidan area. “AAP seems to have the right kind of election promises. They are talking about allowances for the unemployed youth here. A tempo has been built; now let’s wait for the election results. I think there will be a lot of silent voting for AAP,” he says.

Deepak, a local cab driver, says in impeccable English that Goans are literate and they would choose wisely. “We all read newspapers. We know what is happening in Delhi after AAP’s coming to power there. We do not want the development work to go slow here.”

However, all agree that this time the elections are complex in Goa. The coast is not clear for any party, it seems. From the look of it, Goa is set for a hung Assembly. A Huffington Post-CVoter survey recently said there would be a neck-and-neck battle between BJP (15 seats) and the Congress (14 seats) in the 40-member Assembly. The survey gives AAP two seats. 

AAP’s CM candidate and former bureaucrat Elvis Gomes is reckoning on the tribal vote bank. “We have chosen four young candidates from the tribals, who comprise 11-12 per cent of the state’s population,” he said.

AAP has been campaigning feverishly in South Goa, largely a Christian and tribal belt, and also the Congress’ traditional vote base. Its campaign has been peppered with songs and dances. In fact, AAP volunteers had danced all the way in a three-km rally from Murgaon to Zuari Road earlier this month as the fun-loving locals joined the groove. 

Political observers here say that to some extent AAP has managed to strike a chord with the youth here, especially through its promise to create 50,000 jobs and the unemployment allowance.

How does the party plan to dole out allowances when the public debt of the state has been continuously rising? As of March 31, 2015, the state’s public debt stood at Rs 10,836 crore, which has more than doubled from 2009, when it was around Rs 5,623.03 crore.

The BJP manifesto promises to make Goa unemployment-free in the next five years, too. Union Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar, who is in Goa for the past few weeks, says the projects sanctioned through the Investment Promotion Board (headed by the Goa chief minister, IPB is BJP’s brain-child to secure investment in the mining crisis-hit state) have the potential to create more than 24,000 jobs. 

As for the Congress here, their efforts seem to be misdirected. Party Vice-President Rahul Gandhi was in Mapusa (Parrikar’s hometown) last Monday and strangely, in his speech of about 18 minutes, he focused on the Narendra Modi government. “Your state Goa is run with a remote control from Delhi. We will not give you a dictator,” Gandhi had said. 

Local political observers, however, say that the Goa elections cannot be won by harping on national issues or launching an attack on a personality who has a national importance. In this state, with just around 1.1 million voters, the average number of electors per constituency works out to a little more 27,000 people. “A matter of 1,000 votes may tilt the scale in the elections. One has to focus on local issues,” says a senior bureaucrat here. 

Everyone in Goa is positive that the ruling BJP is on a sticky wicket this time, facing anti-incumbency, the combo effect of Subhash Velingkar (the RSS functionary who was sacked), and AAP, and may fall short of securing a majority. But the Congress is a divided house, and three former chief ministers — Pratap Singh Rane, Luizinho Faleiro and Digambar Kamat (Faleiro is the party’s state unit chief) — are leading a faction each. The in-fighting had led to delay in announcing the party’s candidates, said Gomes. After the elections, these feuds would come out into the open, he said. The party had won nine seats last time, and this time might increase its tally, thanks to the alliance of the Goa Suraksha Manch (GSM), Shiv Sena and Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP), formed by rebel RSS leader Subhash Velingkar, eating into the traditional BJP vote base. While the Shiv Sena did not have a one per cent vote share in the last elections, MGP is a veteran in Goa politics. 

MGP, however, lost ground after Parrikar's rise in state politics, despite having a seat-sharing pact with the government. Locals say it is MGP’s last-ditch effort to revive its fortunes in the state, but its traditional but loyal vote base is shrinking. It comprises mostly senior generations and as such is not more than 11 per cent of the number of electors. Much of Goa is young; about 43 per cent of Goa’s 1.1 million voters are estimated to be below 40, and around 22 per cent below 30. Velingkar sounded confident. “We will win 22 seats.” The 68-year-old, who has worked for the RSS since he was 13 and had groomed Parrikar, said the alliance would win seats even in South Goa, which is not a traditional MGP stronghold. 

“BJP has chosen not to announce Parrikar’s name as the next CM of Goa, while his return is almost imminent. This is because then it would demotivate the local party-base. Parrikar is not a team player, he does not allow another ‘face’ to emerge in Goa,” Velingkar told Business Standard. 

Every political party has so far ruled out going for a coalition, but that was before the elections. After the elections, the independents are likely to hold the balance. There are 58 independent candidates this time. Some like the Congress have drawn support from independents of smaller parties like Atanasio (Babush) Monserrate, Francisco Mickky Pacheco and Vijai Sardesai. The Congress is contesting in 37 seats.