Imran Khan claims victory amid poll tampering charges in Pakistan
Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf emerged as the single largest in the National Assembly with its candidates winning 104 seats and leading in 14 others
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Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf emerged as the single largest in the National Assembly with its candidates winning 104 seats and leading in 14 others
)
ON A STICKY WICKET
OVER ECONOMY
A new government under Imran Khan will need to move quickly to tackle a brewing economic crisis in Pakistan. His key economic challenges:
Reserves slump
Pakistan’s reserves have dropped at the fastest pace in Asia to $9.1 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Reserves are now below the level reached when the country approached the IMF the last two times for a bailout, according to Bilal Khan, a senior economist at Standard Chartered Bank Plc. Low reserves mean the nation has less funds to pay for much-needed imports to keep economic growth going and for the central bank to maintain currency stability.
IMF bailout
If Pakistan heads to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for aid, it won’t be the first time. The nation has had 12 loan programmes with the IMF since the late 1980s and may seek between $10 billion and $15 billion from the lender in upcoming months, according to Karachi-based Insight Securities. The loans typically come with conditions such as reigning in fiscal deficits and tighter monetary policy. Pakistan’s central bank has already increased interest rates three times this year to 7.5 per cent.
Trade deficit
The trade gap has widened despite multiple measures to restrict imports and spur exports over the past few months. That’s driven up the current-account deficit by 42 per cent to $18 billion in the year through June. An economic growth boom and billions of dollars in Chinese-built infrastructure has fuelled demand for imports and added to the nation’s debt. Moody’s Investors Service cut the nation’s credit-rating outlook to negative from stable as external balances weakened. The economy is expected to slow for the first time in six years to 5.2 per cent in the year starting July, according to the average of six economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
Tax revenue
One of the structural problems a new government will need to fix is low tax compliance. While Pakistan has increased its tax-to-GDP ratio in recent years to 12.5 per cent in the year through June, that’s still among the lowest in Asia and globally. “I vow to protect taxpayers’ money,” Khan said Thursday. “We will convert governors’ houses into hotels instead of splurging people’s tax money on upkeep of politicians.” Bloomberg
First Published: Jul 27 2018 | 2:54 AM IST