India could've seen 8.2L COVID-19 cases by Apr 15 sans lockdown, containment steps: Health ministry

The number of coronavirus cases in the country could have increased to 8.2 lakh by April 15 had India not implemented a lockdown and other containment measures, the Union Health Ministry said on Saturday.

Addressing a daily briefing on the coronavirus situation of the country, Joint Secretary in the Health Ministry Lav Agarwal said the country has taken early preemptive action to identify COVID-19 hotspots, along with implementing other containment measures.

"According to a statistical analysis by us, India would have registered a 41 per cent cumulative rise in the number of cases, taking the total to 2.08 lakh on April 11 and 8.2 lakh by April 15 had there been no lockdown or other containment measures," the officer said.

With containment measures but no lockdown, the number of cases could have risen to 1.2 lakh till April 15 and to 45,370 on April 11 at 28.9 per cent growth rate, he said.

Stressing on the importance of social distancing, lockdown and other efforts in the battle against coronavirus, the officer said, "Since we started promoting social distancing and implemented lockdown from March 25 along with other containment measures, there has been a decrease in cases and we have 7,447 coronavirus cases till date."
To a question on the efficacy of the drug on frontline health workers, Head of Epidemiology and Communicable diseases at ICMR Raman R Gangakhedkar said, "Out study has not reached at the stage where the results can be analysed so as to draw a conclusion. The duration of exposure has to be long enough otherwise our conclusions may be wrong."
Stressing on the use of hydroxychloroquine as a prophylaxis for healthcare workers and household contacts taking care of coronavirus positive case, he said "There is not evidence to recommend its use for general public."
To another question, the ICMR official said, "Five lakh antibody testing kits ordered by the ICMR have not been received yet."