India, other emerging mkts to drive $5 trillion aircraft demand

Airbus says in emerging economies, 25% of population takes one trip per year; this will rise sharply to 74% by 2034

Growing passenger traffic in India and other emerging markets would help generate aircraft demand worth about $5 trillion in 20 years and the fleet across aviation industry would more than double by 2034, Airbus said today.

The domestic traffic flow in India alone is estimated to grow nearly 6 times in this period, making it one of the fastest growing markets globally, even as a survey by Airbus has identified Mumbai and Delhi airports among the largely congested ones across the world.

Releasing its Global Markets Forecast here at the 51st Paris International Air Show, Airbus said that "from the world's first commercial flight in 1914, to today's 32 million flights annually, aviation has become part and parcel of our everyday lives.

"With some three billion air passengers, and 50 million tonnes of freight carried every year by planes, it is estimated that aviation contributes $2.4 trillion annually to global GDP".

In the next 20 years, global passenger traffic will grow at an average 4.6 per cent a year, driving a need for some 32,600 new aircraft above 100 seats (31,800 passenger and 800 freighters greater than 10 tonnes) worth $4.9 trillion, it said.

"By 2034, passenger and freighter fleets will more than double from today's 19,000 aircraft to 38,500. Some 13,100 passenger and freighter aircraft will be replaced with more fuel efficient types," Airbus said.

Emerging economies which collectively account for six billion people, are the real engines of worldwide traffic growth. They will grow at 5.8 per cent a year compared to more advanced economies, like those in Western Europe or North America, which are forecast to grow collectively at 3.8 per cent.

Emerging economies also account for 31 per cent of worldwide private consumption which will rise to 43 per cent by 2034.

"Economic growth rates in emerging economies such as China, India, Middle East, Africa and Latin America will exceed the world average. A knock on effect is that middle classes will double to almost 5 billion people," Airbus said.

The tendency to travel by air is increasing, it said, adding that in emerging economies, 25 per cent of the population take one trip per year, and this will increase sharply to 74 per cent by 2034. In advanced economies, such as North America, the tendency to travel will exceed two trips per year.

"Asia-Pacific will lead in world traffic by 2034 and China will be the world's biggest aviation market within 10 years, and clearly Asia and emerging markets are the catalyst for strong air traffic growth," said John Leahy, Airbus Chief Operating Officer, Customers.