Iraqi victories remain fragile as US reduces troops

From their outpost on Iraq's westernmost edge, US 1st Lt Kyle Hagerty and his troops watched civilians trickle into the area after American and Iraqi forces drove out the Islamic State group.
They were, he believed, families returning to liberated homes, a hopeful sign of increasing stability.
But when he interviewed them on a recent reconnaissance patrol, he discovered he was wrong. They were families looking for shelter after being driven from their homes in a nearby town.
Those who pushed them out were forces from among their "liberators", Shiite militiamen who seized control of the area after defeating the IS militants.

It was a bitter sign of the mixed legacy from the United States intervention in Iraq to help defeat the militants. American-backed military firepower brought down the IS "caliphate," but many of the divisions and problems that helped fuel the extremists rise remain unresolved.
The US-led coalition, which launched its fight against IS in August 2014, is now reducing the numbers of American troops in Iraq, after Baghdad declared victory over the extremists in December. Both Iraqi and U.S. officials say the exact size of the drawdown has not yet been decided.

US and Iraqi commanders here in western Iraq warn that victories over IS could be undercut easily by a large-scale withdrawal. Iraq's regular military remains dependent on US support.

Many within Iraq's minority communities view the US presence as a buffer against the Shiite-dominated central government.
Still, Iranian-backed militias with strong voices in Baghdad are pushing for a complete US withdrawal, and some Iraqis liken any American presence to a form of occupation.
That has left an uncomfortable limbo in this area that was the last battlefield against the extremists. Coalition commanders still work with Iraqi forces to develop long-term plans for stability even as a drawdown goes ahead with no one certain of its eventual extent.
"Lets go win us some hearts and minds," Sgt. Jonathan Cary, 23, joked as he and Hagerty and the patrol convoy set off from a base outside the town of Qaim, evoking a phrase used in American policy goals for Iraq ever since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion that ousted Saddam Hussein.

After just a few hours moving on foot across farmland and orchards to a cluster of modest houses, Hagerty realized the families he thought were returnees to the area were in fact newly displaced.
Their homes in Qaim had been confiscated by the government-affiliated Popular Mobilization Forces, or PMF, made up mainly of Shiite paramilitary fighters backed by Iran.
"Our end goal is a stable Iraq, right?" Hagerty said later, back at the base. "But when you see stuff like that, it makes you wonder if they are ever going to be able to do it themselves."
After victories against IS, the PMF has built up a presence in many parts of Sunni-majority provinces, including western Anbar. It formally falls under the command of the prime minister, but some Iraqi commanders accuse the PMF of being a rival to government power.

PMF flags line highways crisscrossing Anbar. At a PMF checkpoint outside al-Asad airbase, a sprawling complex used by both Iraqi and coalition forces, US convoys are regularly stopped for hours while busloads of PMF fighters are waved through.
US Marine Col. Seth Folsom works closely with the branches of Iraqs security forces, Sunni tribal fighters and the Iraqi army, who are increasingly concerned about the rise in power of the PMF.
Iran has given no indication of dialing back its support after the defeat of IS extremists.
"The biggest question I get now is, how long can we count on you being here?" Folsom said of his conversations with Iraqi commanders and local politicians.

That decision ultimately rests with Iraqs political leadership, he said.
"I guess some people could see that as a cop-out, but at the same time its not my place as a lowly colonel to define how long the U.S. presence is going to be.