Prospects of Taliban peace talks dim as front lines shift

Prospects of jumpstarting peace talks with the Taliban are becoming increasingly dim amid recent battlefield gains by the insurgents in Afghanistan, an embattled government in Kabul and growing suspicions of Pakistan's good intentions in facilitating such negotiations.
Even if Pakistan wanted to bring the warring sides to the negotiating table, its leverage as a safe haven for the Taliban has weakened as the insurgents' southern Afghan heartland has expanded, providing them with more places to hide at home.
The Taliban were toppled in the 2001 US invasion of Afghanistan and have fought against the Kabul government and NATO forces ever since. Their insurgency escalated after the end in 2014 of the US-NATO combat mission.

That pullout left inexperienced and poorly trained Afghan forces to battle insurgents largely on their own. When the Taliban launched their annual warm-weather offensive last year, Kabul responded with large-scale military operations, but the Taliban gained ground.
A report released this month by the independent Afghan Analysts Network offered a breakdown of the Helmand province, showing the Taliban in control of parts of many districts and all of other districts, with the exception of district capitals.
The AAN, based in Kabul, concluded that the Taliban have become better armed and better organised, and have established "well-equipped and mobile commando-like" units.

As a result, neighbouring Pakistan, which has acted as a traditional go-between, has lost some of its leverage over the insurgents and may no longer have the authority to bring the Taliban into the talks.

"Pakistan has derived its influence over the Taliban through the safe havens it provides to the group on its soil," said Michael Kugelman, a senior associate for South and Southeast Asia at the US-based Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.
"Now the Taliban are developing new sanctuaries in Afghanistan, and they may not have as much need to heed the requests of their patron," Kugelman told The Associated Press.

"In effect, if the Pakistanis come calling, the Taliban may choose not to listen, and simply keep on fighting."
A four-nation group that included Pakistan, Afghanistan, China and the US launched efforts earlier this year to try to bring Afghanistan's protracted war to a negotiated end. They developed a roadmap and promised an early start to talks. Pakistan was seen as key to bringing the Taliban to the table.
But the Taliban issued a statement saying they would not participate in the talks and their new leader, Mullah Akhtar Mansoor, claimed the Taliban were winning the war and were "in a better state than at any other time."

Pakistan, which sees most foreign policy issues through the prism of its shaky relationship with nuclear archrival neighbouring India has expressed concern about India's increasing influence in Afghanistan, particularly in the field of defenCe, says Amir Rana.
Rana, of the Pakistan Institute of Peace Studies in Islamabad, said Pakistan first and foremost wants a peace process where its concerns are addressed.