Researchers improve monsoon forecast in India

Researchers have identified a location in central India where they can predict excess monsoon rainfall or drought, which has an enormous impact on the national and global economy.
Scientists, including Indrani Roy from University of Exeter, in the UK studied 23 different mathematical models designed to predict information about the climate.
They compared them with human observations about the climate and found that models are able to make accurate predictions about the monsoon rain in Central North East India.
They found that data from tropical Pacific Ocean could help them predict the behaviour of the Summer Monsoon in Central North East India. The models did not allow researchers to make the same predictions for other regions in India.

"India is one of the most populated countries in the world, and the monsoon rains have not only a significant impact on the national but also the global economy," said Roy.
"Our findings will improve prediction skills which will contribute to better business performance, economic prosperity and wealth creation. It can directly affect the ability of the sub-continent to anticipate and adapt to changes," she said.

The Indian Summer Monsoon has a major impact on agriculture, and therefore the economy, in India, and is responsible for 80 per cent of the country's annual rainfall. Farmers rely on this seasonal rain to grow essential crops.

Flooding also threatens life. A strong monsoon in 2005 killed more than 1,000 people, researchers said.
Having more accurate forecasts means farmers can choose the crops and plans which are likely to be most successful. It can also help farmers and policymakers plan how to store the excess water.
The Indian Summer Monsoon is influenced by the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which causes extreme weather in different parts of the world, researchers said.
The ENSO is mainly caused by fluctuations in sea surface temperature around central to east tropical Pacific Ocean. There are two opposite phases, El Nino and La Nina.

During La Nina, that sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean is colder, for El Nino, the temperature is warmer. During El Nino there is usually less monsoon rainfall and for La Nina there is more rainfall, researchers said.
The findings could allow government and policymakers to make more informed decisions which will give better protection to communities, farmers and businesses.
It will enable them to make policy which will mitigate the impact of extreme and unusual weather, researchers said.
The findings were published in the International Journal of Climatology.