Contagion fears heighten as EM selloff resumes

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Reuters NEW YORK
Last Updated : Jan 31 2014 | 11:19 PM IST

By Rodrigo Campos

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Emerging market stocks and currencies extended their slide on Friday on fears of a protracted capital flight, while a gauge of global equities fell, on track to close its worst month in two years.

European and U.S. stock markets gave back the previous day's gains, setting up MSCI's global index for its largest monthly decline since May 2012. Emerging market stocks were down nearly 7 percent for the month, the worst start to a year since 2008.

But U.S. indexes, after opening trade down sharply, managed to climb back from the day's lows.

Adding to pressure in emerging market currencies from Turkey to South Africa in previous sessions, the Russian rouble and Polish zloty slid against the U.S. dollar. Government borrowing costs jumped across weaker economies despite local policymakers' efforts to staunch the bleeding.

Concern about growth in China and other emerging markets triggered the selling in developing economies late last week, with focus on countries with internal political and economic issues, like Ukraine and Argentina.

The U.S. Federal Reserve's decision this week to continue to withdraw its monetary stimulus - one of the reasons for the flow of cash into emerging markets in recent years - compounded the problems in emerging economies.

"Pressure has now returned to haunt the key emerging market currencies whose central banks have so far raised the cost of borrowing, but pressure valves are also now being tested elsewhere," said Andrew Wilkinson, chief market analyst at Interactive Brokers LLC in Greenwich, Connecticut. He noted that interest rate increases from Turkey, India and South Africa this week helped reverse the trend in trading on Thursday.

"The week is ending on a bad note as investors reflect on the earlier catalyst indicating potential sluggish growth for the world's No. 2 two economy, China."

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 105.00 points, or 0.66 percent, at 15,743.61. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was down 6.60 points, or 0.37 percent, at 1,787.59. The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 9.84 points, or 0.24 percent, at 4,113.28.

The FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares closed down 0.3 percent after earlier falling nearly 1 percent.

In a move seen directly pressuring the Fed and European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund urged central banks to ensure that a financial market rout in the developing world does not lead to an international funding crunch.

"I have been saying that the U.S. should worry about the effects of its policies on the rest of the world," Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan said on Friday, a day after slamming what he said was a breakdown in global monetary coordination.

Poland delayed publication of its monthly debt supply plan until next week due to market turbulence and an overhaul of its pension scheme, a day after Hungary scrapped a bond sale because of a sudden spike in rates.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was up 8/32, the yield at 2.6639 percent.

Emerging market currencies: http://link.reuters.com/xyd46v

EURO FALLS

Euro zone consumer price inflation dropped in January, bucking market expectations and putting downward pressure on the single currency. Inflation slowed back to 0.7 percent, the same level as when the ECB, which meets next Thursday, caught markets off guard with a rate cut in November. Unemployment remained at a record high.

The euro was last down 0.4 percent versus the U.S. dollar, trading at $1.3499.

"It's now more likely than ever that Draghi is going to have to step in with some extraordinary measure to stave off deflation," said Aberdeen Asset Management fixed income investment analyst Luke Bartholomew, referring to ECB President Mario Draghi.

MONEY FLOWING OUT OF EM

Fund investors worldwide pulled $6.4 billion from emerging market stock funds in the week ended January 29, marking their biggest outflows since August 2011, data from a Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research report showed.

The grab for safer assets meant the dollar had the upper hand in the currency market, pressuring commodities already weakened by the prospects of slower growth.

Gold was caught between the run to safety and the greenback's surge, and spot prices were little changed. The precious metal was down for the week but on track to post its first monthly gain since last August.

Brent oil and U.S. crude fell 0.9 percent and 0.1 percent respectively. Copper fell 0.6 percent to set a monthly drop of more than 4 percent, the largest since last June.

"The absence of the Chinese market for the next week means that we may see some further downside on commodities, especially if we do see the dollar gaining ground," said Tim Radford, of Sydney-based metals adviser Rivkin.

Chinese markets were closed for the New Year holiday and will remained closed into next week.

(Reporting by Rodrigo Campos; Additional reporting by Angela Moon in New York and Tim Ahmann and Jason Lange in Washington; Editing by Dan Grebler)

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First Published: Jan 31 2014 | 11:03 PM IST

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