Exclusive: Warming set to exceed 1.5°C, slow economic growth - U.N. draft

By Alister Doyle Environment Correspondent

OSLO (Reuters) - Global warming is set to exceed the most stringent goal set in the Paris agreement 'by around 2040' on current trends, threatening economic growth, according to a draft U.N. report that is the starkest warning yet of the risks of climate change.

Governments can still cap temperatures below the strict 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7° Fahrenheit) ceiling only with "rapid and far-reaching" transitions in the world economy, according to the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The final government draft, obtained by Reuters and dated June 4, is due for publication in October in South Korea after revisions and approval by governments. It will be the main scientific guide for combating climate change.

"If emissions continue at their present rate, human-induced warming will exceed 1.5°C by around 2040," according to the draft, which broadly reaffirms findings in an earlier draft in January but is more robust after 25,000 comments from experts and a wider pool of scientific literature.

(Reporting By Alister Doyle; editing by John Stonestreet)