IMF sees Brexit shaving 2017 euro zone growth to 1.4%

IMF said a further global growth slowdown could derail the euro area's domestic demand-led recovery

Visitors are silhouetted against the logo of the International Monetary Fund
Visitors are silhouetted against the logo of the International Monetary Fund at the main venue for the IMF and World Bank annual meeting in Tokyo
Reuters Washington
Last Updated : Jul 08 2016 | 8:00 PM IST

Uncertainties caused by Britain's vote to leave the European Union will cause euro zone economic growth to decelerate to 1.4% in 2017 from 1.6% this year, and downside risks are piling up, the International Monetary Fund said on Friday.

In its annual policy review of the 19-country bloc, the IMF said a further global growth slowdown could derail the euro area's domestic demand-led recovery, and further Brexit spillovers, the refugee surge, increased security concerns and banking weakness all could take their toll on growth.

But IMF European Department Deputy Director Mahmood Pradhan said that if the separation negotiations drag out between the EU and the UK and continues to cause risk reductions in financial markets, euro area growth would slow further.

"If that risk aversion is prolonged, we think the growth impact could be larger and at this point, it is very difficult to tell how long that period lasts," Pradhan told reporters on a conference call.

He added that the 1.4% growth scenario for 2017 assumes a relatively swift negotiation of a deal that would preserve full tariff-free access to the European Union common market for Britain. Even this "best-case" scenario will cause a slowdown in investment and weigh on consumer and market confidence, he said.

In the report, the IMF said medium-term prospects for the euro zone are "mediocre", constrained by crisis legacy problems from high unemployment, elevated public and private debt and deep-rooted structural weakness.

"As a result growth five years ahead is expected to be about 1.5%, with headline inflation reaching only 1.7%," the IMF said.

 

 

*Subscribe to Business Standard digital and get complimentary access to The New York Times

Smart Quarterly

₹900

3 Months

₹300/Month

SAVE 25%

Smart Essential

₹2,700

1 Year

₹225/Month

SAVE 46%
*Complimentary New York Times access for the 2nd year will be given after 12 months

Super Saver

₹3,900

2 Years

₹162/Month

Subscribe

Renews automatically, cancel anytime

Here’s what’s included in our digital subscription plans

Exclusive premium stories online

  • Over 30 premium stories daily, handpicked by our editors

Complimentary Access to The New York Times

  • News, Games, Cooking, Audio, Wirecutter & The Athletic

Business Standard Epaper

  • Digital replica of our daily newspaper — with options to read, save, and share

Curated Newsletters

  • Insights on markets, finance, politics, tech, and more delivered to your inbox

Market Analysis & Investment Insights

  • In-depth market analysis & insights with access to The Smart Investor

Archives

  • Repository of articles and publications dating back to 1997

Ad-free Reading

  • Uninterrupted reading experience with no advertisements

Seamless Access Across All Devices

  • Access Business Standard across devices — mobile, tablet, or PC, via web or app

More From This Section

First Published: Jul 08 2016 | 6:36 PM IST

Next Story