Aids Epidemic Warning For South Africa
A sudden rise in the numbers carrying the Aids virus in South Africa has raised fears of an uncontrollable HIV epidemic. Nkosazana Zuma, the minister of health, warned that the consequences will be too ghastly to contemplate, and is planning a national conference next month to review policy.
One aim of the conference will be to raise awareness of the impending crisis among companies and unions. Zumas comments were provoked by a survey of 15,000 women attending ante-natal clinics which showed a 34.8 per cent increase in those testing positive for HIV.
The infection rate among this group was just over 14 per cent, compared with 10.4 per cent the previous year.
The increase was worst in North West province where those testing positive rose from 8.3 per cent to more than 25 per cent. This is partly explained by its proximity to Botswana where infection rates in Francistown and Gaberone are 40 per cent and 29 per cent respectively.
Based on these figures, the survey estimates that 2.4 million South Africans are infected with HIV, including 1.4 million women.
The worst affected is KwaZulu-Natal with 750,000 carrying the virus, followed by the industrial heartland of Gauteng, including Johannesburg and Pretoria, with 466,000 cases.
Janina Slawski, an actuary with Southern Lifes Aids management consultancy, believes the epidemic will eventually lead to 25 per cent of the workforce becoming infected.
She estimates this will lop one per cent a year off economic growth, and lead to higher industrial costs because of the loss of skilled labour and the need to spend more on training programmes. An average company could expect productivity to fall by about five per cent.
These factors, plus the changes in resource allocation, also have worrying implications for South Africas global competitiveness, she says.
But Slawski points out that the disease has to be examined on a community basis where different levels of prevalence will be experienced. This can be especially important to companies seeking to assess the likely costs of the disease.
Anthony Kinghorn, a director of HIV Management Services, a new consultancy set up to assist companies plan for and counter the impact of HIV/Aids, says a range of costs are involved from medical, insurance and pension funds, to the less direct such as poor work performance, absenteeism, and compassionate leave.
Workforces in South Africa can be at greater risk than the general population because of the prevalence of migrant workers and the high incidence of disjointed family life, he says.
This leads to the use of sex workers, and higher alcohol consumption particularly among the better paid skilled workers. The upwardly mobile are not at less risk, and in turn this has implications for training costs.
Among those most aware of the increasing rate of infection are mining companies, particularly in the gold sector where improved productivity is critical to the survival of marginal mines.
A study by HIV Management Services of one mining company showed the rate of HIV infection likely to reach a plateau of about 35 per cent of its workforce.
How rapidly the incidence of HIV will lead to sharply higher sickness and death levels is not yet clear, but Kinghorn believes the impact will be strongly felt by 2005, with the heaviest costs for industry between 2015 and 2020.
Although this will vary from one company to another, Kinghorn says there is no escape from the consequences.
Some companies may feel that with such a large pool of unemployed they can largely avoid the problems. But there is not a large pool of skilled and semi-skilled. There is no reserve of skills, so all companies will be affected. HIV Management Services is also being asked by companies to assess the impact of the disease on markets for their products, where changes in predicted demand affect investment plans. This is particularly important for products in the mass consumer market and for those targeted at the age groups most at risk, says Dr Kinghorn. Banks making housing loans, for example, want better information on the incidence of clients likely to default. Miss Slawski says luxury goods manufacturers could also be seriously affected as consumers are forced to spend an increasing amount of their income on health care and support services. Roger Matthews Copyright Financial Times Limited 1997. All Rights Reserved.