Crisis Looks Over, But Uncle Sam Has Doubts

The latest standoff between the US and Iraq may be headed for a peaceful resolution, but Middle East experts and US officials are quick to warn that another crisis could erupt at any time.

UN secretary general Kofi Annan on Sunday brokered an 11th-hour agreement to defuse a crisis over UN inspections of suspected Iraqi biological or chemical weapons sites.

Washington reserved judgement, saying it wanted to examine the fine print of the reported agreement. US officials stressed there were no plans to reduce the US military presence in the Gulf. While Annan's deal appeared likely to stave off air strikes on Iraqi target by the US and Britain for now, a host of experts warned a long-term solution was still needed to prevent future crises.

Former US secretary of state Lawrence Eagleburger said if the agreement was genuine it would "obviate the need to go a shooting war where everything is up for grabs ... If it's not we're still going to have a pretty bloody mess on our hands." Eagleburger told CNN the next step for Washington if it accepted the deal would be to draw down troops in the Gulf, all the while "recognising that we'll probably have to be back here again in about six months."

For now US troops would stay on high alert in the region as Washington weighed the deal and consulted with allies. Tough economic sanctions would remain firmly in place against Iraq. Washington has two aircraft carriers, 17 combat ships, an amphibious marine force, 356 attack and support aircraft and almost 28,700 military personnel in the Gulf. Saddam Hussein would remain firmly in power, likely declaring victory over the Americans while continuing to build weapons in countries such as Sudan and Libya, Victor Le Vine, professor of political science at Washington University in St Louis, told Reuters.