G20's declining share in the world, amid India's growing influence

As the country prepares to host the summit of twenty nations next year in September 2023, it also has to tackle rising concerns of climate change and calls for the expansion of the group from other co

On Thursday, India will assume the G20 presidency. As the country prepares to host the summit of 20 nations in September 2023, it also has to tackle rising concerns of climate change and calls from other countries for the expansion of the group.

In 1999, when the Group of 20 or G20 was formed, the countries accounted for 87.6 per cent of the global output. In 2021, data from World Bank shows, their share declined to 85.6 per cent (chart 1). Similarly, in merchandise trade, the share of G20 countries declined from 80.2 to 76.5 per cent.

However, analysis shows a shift within G20 players as well. The Group of Seven or G7 countries’ share in global output and trade has fallen faster than that of the other G20 nations. The share of G7 in global output declined from 67.5 per cent in 1999 to 51 per cent in 2021. In trade, the share declined from 65.9 to 47.7 per cent during the same period (chart 2).

The G20 countries also account for a relatively smaller share of the global population compared to 1999. Despite boasting two of the most populous countries in the world, its share has declined from 66.5 per cent in 1999 to 61.6 per cent in 2021 (chart 3).

 But the decline in population has also come on the back of a rise in life expectancy and better health outcomes. The life expectancy in G20 economies in 2020 was 77.6 years, compared to the global average of 72.7. It was still lower than the G7 average of 81.3 years (chart 4).

As the clamour for climate action grows louder, these economies would have to reorient to incorporate climate as a significant agenda. Analysis of data from the Global Carbon Project 2022 shows that the countries accounted for 80 per cent of the world’s carbon emissions (chart 5). 

While G20’s global influence may be declining, India has witnessed an improvement in its standing within the group. India accounted for 1.91 per cent share of the G20’s total output at the time of the group’s formation. In 2021, India’s share rose to 3.68 per cent (chart 6).