Jaya Threats Upset Bjp Itinerary

The possibility of the AIADMK withdrawing support to the five-month old Vajpayee government has cast its shadow on the BJP's national executive meeting, which is slated to begin in Jaipur from Friday. The party has not been able to fix the itinerary for Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Union home minister L K Advani for the three-day meeting, as the crisis could keep them in the capital.

While Vajpayee is likely to attend the executive meeting for one day, either for the concluding session or a session on the second day, Advani still hopes to attend for all the three days, a senior BJP leader said.

There is also a proposal to postpone the meeting but senior party leaders say they want to wait and watch political developments till Thursday. Postponement, however, would be the last option, as it would signal that the government was panicky.

Senior BJP leaders held that this government's longevity depended on the Congress' deciding to form an alternative government. The support of the DMK, which has six members in the Lok Sabha, is not enough to bail out the government if the AIADMK, which has 18 Mps, withdrew support.

The PMK, which has three members in the Lok Sabha, the MDMK, which has four, and the TRC's one member are not enough, even if they do not go with the AIADMK. The BJP-led coalition would still need a few more Lok Sabha members to get through a confidence vote, one BJP leader admitted. He said he hoped there would be a few abstentions, but the party's managers fear that the Congress too could cause splits in some of its allies.

The seriousness of the crisis was also indicated by Union minister Dilip Ray's decision to cancel his one-week tour to Singapore.

He was supposed to leave for Singapore on Sunday but cancelled on Vajpayee's advice. Ray, who has a good rapport with Jayalalitha, has emerged as one of Vajpayee's trusted trouble shooters.

The BJP, however, publicly claimed that there was no threat to the government's stability. A spokesperson pointed out that none of the BJP's allies had spoken either of withdrawing. "There is no alternative to this government," he said.

The spokesperson rejected Trinamool Congress leader Mamata Banerjee's suggestion that the government could seek a confidence vote to demonstrate that it still commanded a majority. There was no question of the government seeking a vote of confidence as the situation had not changed since the last confidence vote, he said.