Muddling Its Way Through
Within the United Front, the largest component will be that of the Left. And it is very difficult for the Left to even swallow the thought of supporting a Congress government. In their three strongholds West Bengal, Kerala and Tripura the Left is in direct clash with the Congress. In West Bengal, Ms Mamata Banerjee of the Trinamul Congress, with reluctant support of the BJP, has emerged as a third force. It is doubtful if she can dislodge the Congress from the position of the principal opposition party in the state. However, the CPI(M) central leadership has been trying hard to educate its ranks in the three states to keep national interest in mind and recognise the BJP as ene-my number one. A compromise is likely to be struck whereby the Left will support a Con-gress government from outside.
The Janata Dal, another constituent of the United Front, is likely to be decimated in these elections. It will be lucky if it reaches a double-digit figure. Then there are regional outfits in the United Front the DMK, the TMC, the TDP and the AGP. The bargaining power of the TDP and the AGP will be greatly reduced after the elections. After the Coimbatore blasts, the DMK will have to be doubly careful of not giving any quarter to the BJP. It may have to willy-nilly support the Congress government. The TMC, an offshoot of the Congress party, should have no difficulty in joining a Congress government.
But one thing is clear, the BJP is not going to take its defeat lying down. Much before the elections, it showed an indecent hurry in winning over allies. It did not hesitate to join hands with Ms Jayalalitha, an embodiment of corruption. In UP, it roped in all the mafia-politicians to form the government. It seems desperate. In its no-holds-barred mood, it will go to any length to win new friends in the post-election scenario.
Even among old friends, the Samata Party, an important ally of the BJP, will not allow it to pursue its social agenda. The Samata Party, the AIADMK and Ms Mamata Banerjee have come out openly against the BJPs agenda on the Ayodhya temple, the common civil code and Article 370. On economic management, the Samata Party is likely to take a populist position. It will not allow disinvestment of the public sector. If one is running a meaningful government, one has to exercise some discipline. But parties like the Samata Party are highly irresponsible, they will not allow the BJP to convert itself from a party of the opposition to a party of the government.
If the Congress forms the new government, it will be dependent on the Left. The Congress, in its manifesto, is committed to a left-of-centre position in the social field, but right-of-centre policies in the economic field.
Perhaps, the economic crisis has reached a point where it is not possible to help the poor in the short run. So, subsidies cannot be increased. Foreign capital has to be encouraged to supplement domestic capital. Public sector disinvestment has to be carried out and labour laws have to be made flexible. Protection of small-scale industries has to go. These are some of the hard decision which the Congress has promised to take if it forms the government. But the Left has still not learnt lessons from the collapse of socialism. They have changed, but very little. They will not allow the Congress government to take hard decisions and will be constantly at war with it. The BJP will behave like a jilted lover. It will not come to the rescue of the Congress government, even on sensible economic policies. So, there is sure to be deadlock on most economic issues. Thus, governance will be reduced to non-governance, except on issues which can be pursued by stealth.
The cost of non-governance in the present situation will be very high. The fiscal deficit in 1998-99 will be unmanageable. Industrial production has slowed down, infrastructure is in a mess, exports have collapsed and the rupee is over-valued. Money supply is expanding at an unusually high rate. Reforms were pursued only for the first three years. Two years of the Rao regime and two years of United Front government regime went waste. Hardly anything worthwhile was done in the last four years. And any further delay in resuming the pace of reforms will prove very, very costly. But then, India has a great amount of resilience. It will muddle its way through till a purposeful stable government is formed.