Mulayam In Serious Trouble As Yadavs Move Away
A major shift in Yadav votes in Sambhal towards BJP candidate DP Yadav has sent alarm signals in the camp of Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav, compelling him to deploy all resources to strengthen his Muslim base and to try and reverse the desertion of the Yadav votes.
The contest in Sambhal may well decide the political future of Mulayam Singh Yadav. A resurgent Congress has already started taking away his partys Muslim votes while his influence over his caste brethren has started waning.
The BJP has also made major encroachments in his bastion. All of which indicates that he is in serious trouble.
Mulayam Singh Yadav alone is the star campaigner from his side, and has chosen to address a series of meetings today, although he had declared that he will not visit the constituency again.
Other leaders like Amar Singh, Raj Babbar and a host of Pathan leaders are also working round the clock to boost his prospects.
On the BJPs part, it has deployed Rajnath Singh, state party president, and several Yadav leaders, including Ashok Yadav, now free from his contest in Mainpuri as the constituency went to the polls on February 16, Sahib Singh Verma, Shatrughan Sinha, Kalyan Singh and Sushma Swaraj.
At first sight, Sambhal does not appear to be a theatre where a titanic fight is being decided. There are not many posters, since most of them have been removed by the police under the election commissions guidelines.
Until the police action, the entire town was awash with posters of Mulayam Singh Yadav and his symbol, the bicycle.
Bahujan Samaj Party leader Mayawati has clarified that there is no question of her party withdrawing its candidate or supporting the BJP in Sambhal.
There was intense speculation that BSP leaders would get their votes transferred to the BJP candidate to ensure Mulayam Singh Yadavs defeat.
But despite Mayawatis statements, BSP candidate Budhsen has not been able to lift his campaign to any meaningful extent. He may poll more than 1 lakh votes but there is a distinct possibility that Jatavs may not be allowed to vote in many areas.
D P Yadavs aides say that Mulayam Singh Yadav did not anticipate that the contest would turn out to be so tough.
They say if he knew the dimensions of the contest earlier, he would have preferred another constituency. He first ditched SPS Yadav (Janata Dal runner-up in 1996), and then DP Yadav. His plan is to finish them politically, one of DP Yadavs lieutenants says.
The fact remains that Yadav leaders of various hues have rallied round DP Yadav. Shanti Devi Yadav, a former Congress MP from Sambhal and SPS Yadav have both chosen to support him. Besides, there is also Awadh Pal Singh Yadav, son of Mulayam Singh Yadavs guru and one of the earliest organisers of the Yadavs.
Also behind DP Yadav is Ashok Yadav, minister in the Kalyan Singh government, and Mulayam Singh Yadavs bete noire, whose candidature in Mainpuri is believed to have prompted the SP leaders shift to Sambhal. This gathering of Yadav leaders in support of D P Yadav has ensured that a significant section of Yadavs desert Mulayam Singh. This ranges from 20 to 40 per cent depending on the area. There are also reports that the Yadav vote is getting divided in every village in a constituency where nearly 15 per cent of the electorate consists of Yadavs and Muslims.
Muslim have reportedly sunk their differences. In Sirsi, the predominantly Shia population that dominates large land holdings, has sunk differences and rallied behind Mulayam Singh. The same is true of Sambhal, a predominantely Muslim-dominated town, known for its communal sensitivity.
But among Muslims too, his hold is under threat. Some leaders have been won over by DP Yadav. This includes Jidda, the leader of Muslims of Turkish origin, locally known as Turaks. This has clearly added to the SP leaders discomfiture.
The BJPs organisational machinery has also pulled out all stops, and has managed to enthuse the non-Yadav Hindu population. DP Yadavs supporters argue that Muslims and Yadavs number 5.5 lakh, and the rest would surely vote for him. But of the rest, the largest segment is that of the BSP, and it has no intention of moving away. The BJP has reportedly been able to influence only about 10 per cent in this section.
In 1996, BJP polled 1.30 lakh votes against the United Fronts 1.78 lakh and the BSPs 1.23 lakh. But in the following assembly election, the BJP managed to get 2.35 lakh votes in the five assembly segments in the Sambhal Lok Sabha constituency, against the United Fronts 2.01 lakh. This has given some hope to the BJP.
The 1996 statistics, however, have little meaning, since the voting percentage is expected to be high now. But they do indicate the minimum vote that the BJP can hope to get on its own. Add to this the vote that DP Yadav can manage on his own, and it gives him an outside chance of overcoming Mulayam Singh Yadav. But it may still not ensure a victory. He will need substantial support from the BSPs followers too in the final reckoning.
...promises 10% quota for upper castes
Mulayam Singh Yadav yesterday promised a separate ten per cent reservation for the upper castes if the United Front was voted to power. Addressing an election rally at Sirsi in Sambhal Lok Sabha constituency, from where he is seeking election, Yadav asserted that his party was committed to equal opportunity and development of all sections of the society. He promised that like defence personnel, Rs 7.5 lakh would be provided as compensation to each policeman who dies on duty. Yadav claimed the first-phase of polling witnessed large-scale rigging in the states and said his party was collecting all information available to approach the Election Commission for suitable action.