Re Dip To Impact Sail, Bhel Profits

The depreciation of the rupee will affect Indian corporates corresponding to their structure of production and quantum of exports and imports.

The biggest beneficiaries of the rupee depreciation are likely to be Tata Exports, Hindustan Lever, ITC, National Aluminium (Nalco) and Indian Hotels.

However, Steel Authority of India (SAIL), Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (Bhel), Ispat Industries, Indo-Rama Synthetics, Essar Steel and Spic are likely to face a higher import bill because of their high import content.

Extrapolating the latest fall in the rupee into the export and import figures of top Indian companies in 1996-97, when the rupee was around Rs 35, shows a higher export income for these companies.

For instance, with the rupee at Rs 39 levels, Tata Exports net export earnings would jump 11.42 per cent to Rs 1,763.51 crore. With the rupee at Rs 40, net exports would rise 14.2 per cent to Rs 1808.73 crore.

In the event of the rupee falling to Rs 40, Nalco would gain by Rs 115.11 crore, ITC would gain by Rs 48.35 crore, Indian Hotels by Rs 47.15 crore and East India Hotels by Rs 35.61 crore.

SAIL would face a cost increase of Rs 218.92 crore at Rs 39 and Rs 273.65 crore at Rs 40 levels. The public sector steel major had net imports of Rs 1,915.33 crore in 1996-97, when the rupee was hovering around Rs 35.

Bhels imports would rise by Rs 125.67 crore at Rs 39 and by Rs 157.08 crore at Rs 40.

The largest increase would have been on Reliance Industries, if the company had still continued to import ethylene like last year.

However, with the commissioning of its cracker, imports have been cut down significantly.

In 1996-97, Reliances import bill was Rs 3,519.33 crore. At Rs 40 levels, the 1996-97 import bill would have soared by Rs 502.76 crore.

With negligible ethylene imports, the import bill in 1997-98 would be lower by atleast Rs 1,000 crore.