Statsguru: The next billion people will come from poorer nations

Last week, the United Nations announced that the world would cross 8 billion people. It took the world 12 years to add another billion people to its tally. However, lower fertility rates indicate that the addition of the next 1 billion will take 15 years, and the subsequent expansion to reach 10 billion people would require another 21 years.

India, however, would lead the pack; it is expected to surpass China in terms of the overall population in 2023 (chart 1). It will contribute 16.4 per cent to the addition of the next billion. Nigeria and Pakistan will follow with 8.2 and 7 per cent share, respectively. The top 10 countries are expected to add 55 per cent of the world’s population.

The skewness has declined over the last few decades (chart 2). In 2010, when the global population touched 7 billion, the top nations contributed 58 per cent to the total population increase. Another positive development, a <Business Standard> analysis shows, is the growing proportion of women in the population. In 1974, the share of women in the population of the top 10 nations was 49.6 per cent. As the world population touches 9 billion in 2037, the proportion of women is expected to be 50.6 per cent (chart 3).

Further analysis indicates that the proportion of poorer nations in the total population addition has been rising. The gap between the global per capita GDP and the top 10 countries for every billion people added has increased. The top 10 nations, which shall contribute the most to the next billion, averaged $8,096 per capita in 2021, according to World Bank data. The global GDP per capita average at 2015 constant prices was $11,057 (chart 4). The undernourished population in these countries is also higher than the global average. Food and Agriculture Organization data shows that the nations contributing the most to the next billion population had a higher undernourished population than those that contributed significantly to the billion added between 2010 and 2022 (chart 5). However, the carbon emissions of these nations are expected to be lower (chart 6).