Economic Survey likely to project 6.3-6.8% GDP growth for next fiscal year

The Survey 2024-25, authored by Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageshwaran and his team, will be tabled in Parliament this afternoon

India's economy is projected to grow 6.3 per cent-6.8 per cent in the next fiscal year that starts April 1, a finance ministry report showed on Friday, suggesting economic conditions will remain sluggish with growth set to sag to a four-year low this year. 

The projection was part of the annual Economic Survey, which was presented in parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, ahead of the annual budget on Saturday.

 

The report on the state of economy, authored by Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran and his team in the finance ministry, said India's economic prospects next year are balanced. 

"Rural demand backed by a rebound in agricultural production, an anticipated easing of food inflation and a stable macro-economic environment provide an upside to near-term growth," Nageswaran said in the report. 

He added geopolitical and trade uncertainties, along with possible commodity price shocks, pose headwinds to the economy.

Early economic growth projections have a patchy record of accuracy. However, this year's growth estimate of 6.4 per cent lands close to Nageswaran's and his team's initial projection of 6.5 per cent-7 per cent. 

"The range of growth forecast in the economic survey is appropriate given the global uncertainties," said Aditi Nayar, economist at ICRA, the India arm of Fitch ratings. 

ICRA has forecast growth of 6.5 per cent for 2025/26. 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in his third term's first full budget, is likely to provide policy boost for the world's fifth-largest economy where high prices and tepid wage growth have crimped spending power in a blow to consumption. 

Economists expect policy changes aimed at strengthening consumption and tariff cuts to encourage local manufacturing as ways to boost growth. 

A weaker manufacturing sector and slower corporate investments are seen dragging India's growth to 6.4 per cent in 2024/25.

The growth slowdown amid global volatility has wiped out a recent stock market rally.