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India GDP Growth
India has consistently shown remarkable resilience during global crises, not only surviving them but also transforming through the turbulence to emerge stronger, said Shaktikanta Das, Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister, on Thursday. Addressing the AIMA National Leadership Conclave here, Das said, "Through each crisis, India has not merely survived. It has in fact emerged remarkably and measurably stronger". He noted that the global economy continues to face an "unsettled and charged environment" marked by geopolitical fragmentation, supply chain disruptions and uneven growth, with risks "decisively skewed to the downside". Against this backdrop, the former RBI governor highlighted India's strong economic performance, stating that real GDP growth stood at 7.6 per cent in FY26, with an average growth of 7.8 per cent over the past five years. "India's resilience does not alone explain the full story. India did not just endure the period of turbulence. It transformed through it,
Moody's Ratings has slashed India's economic growth estimates for the current fiscal to 6 per cent from 6.8 per cent earlier, saying the ongoing conflict in West Asia will moderate growth momentum and raise inflation risks. In its credit opinion report on India, Moody's said prolonged disruptions, particularly LPG shipments due to the conflict, would lead to near-term household shortages, higher fuel and transport costs, and spillovers to food inflation through India's reliance on imported fertilisers. The region accounts for around 55 per cent of crude oil imports and over 90 per cent of liquified petroleum gas (LPG) supplies to India. "While inflation remains contained for now, geopolitical risks have tilted the inflation outlook to the upside," Moody's said while projecting inflation to average 4.8 per cent in FY27, up from 2.4 per cent in FY26. With inflation risks re-emerging and growth remaining robust, policy rates are likely to be held steady or raised gradually in fiscal .
India's real GDP growth for the next fiscal could erode by around 1 percentage point, while retail inflation could rise by about 1.5 percentage points from their baseline estimates if the Middle East conflict persists through the next fiscal, an EY report said. The EY Economy Watch report said that several sectors, including employment-intensive sectors like textiles, paints, chemicals, fertilizers, cement and tires, could be directly impacted. Any reduction in employment or incomes in these sectors may further dampen aggregate demand. As a result, both supply and demand conditions may be adversely affected by global oil market disturbances. It said the Indian economy, which imports nearly 90 per cent of its crude oil requirements, is also highly dependent on imports of natural gas and fertilizers, and is particularly vulnerable to such external shocks, with the adverse effects likely to cascade across multiple sectors through strong forward and backward linkages with crude oil and .
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) on Thursday projected India's GDP to grow at 7.6 per cent in the current fiscal and 6.1 per cent in 2026-27. The OECD in its interim Economic Outlook report said the evolving conflict in the Middle East has "human and economic costs" for the countries directly involved, and will test the resilience of the global economy. A halt in shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and the closure or damage of energy infrastructure has generated a surge in energy prices and disrupted the global supply of energy and other important commodities, such as fertilisers. "The decline in (US) tariffs should support growth in India, though gas rationing will disrupt some production activities and fiscal support is expected to fade, with growth easing from 7.6 per cent in fiscal year (FY) 2025-26 to 6.1 per cent in FY 2026-27 and 6.4 per cent in FY 2027-28," the OECD said. The fading deflationary impact of past food and energy price-reducin
S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday raised India's GDP growth forecast for the next fiscal to 7.1 per cent, with private consumption, investment and exports being key drivers, but said that the conflict in the Middle East could strain the fiscal position due to higher energy prices arising from the conflict. In its latest quarterly Asia-Pacific economic commentary, S&P Global Ratings said risks from renewed geopolitical tensions and persistent trade-related uncertainties could affect India through fluctuations in commodity prices, trade volumes, and capital flows. It expects fuel prices in India to rise if oil prices remain elevated, to contain subsidy costs, but does not foresee a full pass-through. "We project real GDP growth to moderate to 7.1 per cent in the fiscal year ending in March 2027, compared with 7.6 per cent in fiscal 2026. Key drivers are resilient private consumption, a modest recovery in private investment, and solid exports," it said. The 2025-26 growth has been .