India GDP Growth

Bank of Baroda economists warn rising oil prices and subsidy burden may widen fiscal deficit and weigh on India's growth outlook in FY27

The United Nations has revised downward India's economic growth forecast for 2026 to 6.4 per cent from its earlier projection of 6.6 per cent, citing global uncertainties and economic shocks arising from the ongoing West Asia crisis. As per the report released by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) on Tuesday, India, however, remains one of the fastest-growing major economies. West Asia crisis has delivered yet another shock to the global economy, slowing growth, reigniting inflationary pressures and heightening uncertainty, it said. Ingo Pitterle, Senior Economist and Officer-in-charge of Global Economic Monitoring Branch, Economic Analysis and Policy Division, UN DESA, said India is "not immune" to current global challenges. "It is a large energy importer and it is also exposed to other channels, for example, remittances, add to some vulnerability. Also, a global financial tightening will make monetary policy more complicated," he added. Pitterle pointed o

India's 2047 aspirations require large foreign capital inflows and deep reforms to reverse the recent outflow

Sustained high oil prices, Morgan Stanley cautioned, could trigger non-linear and progressively larger impacts on growth, as the burden on households and firms intensifies over time.

Moody's Ratings on Tuesday slashed India's GDP growth forecast for year 2026 by 0.8 percentage points to 6 per cent on subdued private consumption, capital formation, and industrial activity amid higher energy costs. In its Global Macro Outlook May update, Moody's said over the next six months, the impact from higher energy prices and fuel and fertilizer-related shortages will vary widely across countries, reflecting differences in exposure and resilience. "The global outlook remains highly uncertain amid an increasingly prolonged confrontation and fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran, We estimate growth losses ranging from around 0.8 ppt for India," Moody's said. For calendar year 2027, Moody's slashed GDP growth estimates by 0.5 percentage points to 6 per cent for India, reflecting lingering headwinds that gradually fade as shipping flows stabilise and energy supplies improve, allowing underlying economic activity to recover. Moody's said India is "particularly vulnerable" t

India's economy is projected to grow at 6.6 per cent in 2026-27 fiscal while a comprehensive package is required on the Balance of Payments (BoP) front amid rupee depreciation and higher oil price, an SBI Research report said on Monday. The report said the rupee, which has weakened much in the recent period "through clouds on external macros, as also unabated speculative forces" needs structural changes on BoP front, stream lining the guard rails of import substitution, export competitiveness, integration in global value chain. The rupee has breached the 95-mark against the US dollar that has strengthened due to rising global uncertainties, triggered by the West Asia conflict. "There is now a felt need to put in place a comprehensive package to address Balance of Payments (BoP)," SBI Research said and made a strong case for diaspora bonds. With the country's macro fundamental getting distorted as Brent crude prices hover above USD 100, and transport and insurance costs spiking, the

India's economic growth is likely to decelerate to 6.7 per cent in the current fiscal, from 7.7 per cent in 2025-26, with the GDP expansion expected to slow significantly due to waning momentum and oil price shock from Iran war, BMI said on Monday. BMI, a Fitch Group firm, also said that the prospect of the Iran-US conflict escalating in scope presents downside risk to its growth outlook and India must balance spending needs on defence and fuel price stabilisation against fiscal consolidation agenda. The tax reforms in GST and income tax carried out in 2025 will partly offset effects of cost-push inflation, BMI said, adding looser monetary policy will support capital spending, as increased uncertainty amid the war and higher input prices hurt investment. BMI estimates that India's economy grew 8 per cent y-o-y in the January-March quarter of 2026, faster than its original 7.8 per cent projection. It has revised its growth forecast for 2025-26 upwards by 0.1 percentage points to 7.7

India's GDP growth may slip to around 6 per cent and retail inflation could rise to RBI's upper tolerance band of 6 per cent in the current fiscal, if the Indian crude basket price averages USD 120 a barrel, EY India said on Wednesday. EY India Chief Policy Advisor DK Srivastava said, although room for policy interventions is limited, policymakers need to consider upward revision in the repo rate and accelerated diversification of sources of crude supply as the price of the Indian crude basket (ICB) may rise further if the West Asian crisis persists. "If the ICB price averages USD 120 per barrel in FY27, India's real GDP growth may slip to about 6 per cent and CPI inflation may increase to 6 per cent... To minimise the adverse impact on fiscal deficit, increased energy prices should be passed on to the retailers to a relatively larger extent," Srivastava said. The April 2026 release of the US Energy Information Administration EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook projects Brent crude oil ..

More importantly, the inflation has been kept under control as of now with the government absorbing a large part of the crude oil cost increase.

India's economy is projected to grow at 6.4 per cent this year and 6.6 per cent in 2027, according to a report by the United Nations. The United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) said in the report released Monday that economies in South and South-West Asia grew by 5.4% in 2025, compared to 5.2% in 2024, driven largely by strong growth in India. India's growth edged up to 7.4% in 2025, "supported by robust consumption, especially from the rural economy along with goods and services tax rate cuts, and export frontloading ahead of the United States' tariffs," the report, titled Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2026, said. It said in India, economic activities moderated in the second half of 2025 as exports to the United States declined by 25 per cent following the introduction of 50 per cent tariffs in August 2025. The services sector remained a key growth driver. The report projected India to register a 6.4 per cent growth rate

India slipped to sixth in IMF GDP rankings due to rupee depreciation and base revision, even as the economy continued strong growth and is expected to regain position soon

Limited fiscal room and weak household finances may keep real GDP growth subdued

Multilateral lender predicts economic growth to rebound to 7.3% in FY28 driven by EU trade pact and a rise in government staff's income

India has consistently shown remarkable resilience during global crises, not only surviving them but also transforming through the turbulence to emerge stronger, said Shaktikanta Das, Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister, on Thursday. Addressing the AIMA National Leadership Conclave here, Das said, "Through each crisis, India has not merely survived. It has in fact emerged remarkably and measurably stronger". He noted that the global economy continues to face an "unsettled and charged environment" marked by geopolitical fragmentation, supply chain disruptions and uneven growth, with risks "decisively skewed to the downside". Against this backdrop, the former RBI governor highlighted India's strong economic performance, stating that real GDP growth stood at 7.6 per cent in FY26, with an average growth of 7.8 per cent over the past five years. "India's resilience does not alone explain the full story. India did not just endure the period of turbulence. It transformed through it,

Retail inflation is projected at ​4.9% for the current fiscal year ‌reflecting higher food and ​energy prices ‌and exchange depreciation pressure

RBI holds rates and signals a prolonged pause, balancing strong domestic fundamentals against rising global risks and persistent uncertainty

Even though external conditions pose a significant risk, the RBI pointed out that the pause was also cushioned by resilient momentum in domestic activity across manufacturing and services

On the growth side, the RBI has maintained a positive outlook, projecting gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 6.9 per cent for FY27

From the growth perspective, the governor's comment that " growth impulses remain strong, supported by robust private consumption and sustained investment demand" is significant and reassuring

Rate cuts can now be ruled out and the question will be more on when there can be a rate hike. A clearer picture will emerge over the next few months