India GDP Growth

Moody's Ratings on Monday projected India's GDP to grow at 6.4 per cent in the next fiscal, the fastest pace among G-20 economies, driven by strong domestic consumption, policy measures, and a stable banking system. In its banking system outlook report, Moody's said their asset quality will remain resilient, with some stress among micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs). Regardless, banks have sufficient reserves to absorb loan losses, it said. The operating environment for banks will remain strong in 2026, supported by robust macroeconomic conditions and structural reforms, it said. "We forecast India's real GDP will grow 6.4 per cent for fiscal 2026-27, the fastest pace among G-20 economies, driven by strong domestic consumption and policy measures. "The rationalization of the goods and services tax (GST) in September 2025 and an earlier increase in personal income tax thresholds will help improve affordability for consumers and support consumption-led growth," Moody's said.

The POC stressed that excluding precious metals, underlying inflation pressures were muted and that barring volatility on account of gold and silver, core inflation was expected to remain range-bound

From shopping baskets to growth calculations, India is updating the base years for CPI inflation and GDP to reflect today's economy, a recalibration that will change headline numbers without altering

India weathered the Trump tariff shock better than expected, but high public debt and slower fiscal consolidation pose risks even as trade deals lift growth and investor sentiment

The markets were looking for a reason to rally, and they have got it now in the form of India-US trade deal. Once analysts and investors settle down, they will ask more questions (on the deal)

The organising idea is clear: India is no longer trying to grow fast; it is trying to grow well

Aditi Nayar analyses the Budget's fiscal prudence, higher public capex via states, a 4.3 per cent deficit target, debt consolidation, and the impact of higher gross borrowings on bond yields

The tough position that the bond market finds itself reflects a much more fundamental issue, of rising government bond supply chasing limited domestic savings pool

Union Budget 2026 stays focused on fiscal prudence, targets a 4.3% deficit, sustains ₹12.2 trillion capex, and backs rare earths, freight corridors, waterways and data centres, writes Madan Sabnavis

Key GDP and inflation metrics will be revised in February as MoSPI updates base years, meaning several assumptions underpinning Budget 2026 will be recalculated soon after the speech

Economic Survey 2025-26 flags stronger growth but warns that global uncertainty, fiscal discipline, and lower import protection are key to sustaining momentum

CEA V Anantha Nageswaran said that inflation is largely contained, rainfall and agricultural prospects are supportive, external liabilities remain low, and banks are in good health

On the whole, the Survey paints a positive picture for the economy as well as outlook, though cautions more on the external environment

Despite headline GDP growth, weak private capex and rising public borrowing are creating a government-led model that keeps credit scarce, raises rates, and threatens India's long-term growth momentum

Despite a modest improvement in recent months, a majority of chief economists expect global economic conditions to weaken this year but see India anchoring South Asia as the brightest growth spot despite mounting trade headwinds, a new survey showed on Friday. In its latest Chief Economists Outlook report, released ahead of the Davos annual meeting next week, the World Economic Forum said the global economic outlook has improved modestly but remains uncertain, with asset valuations, mounting debt, geo-economic realignment, and rapid deployment of artificial intelligence creating both opportunities and risks. Nearly 53 per cent of chief economists surveyed expect global economic conditions to weaken in the year ahead, down from 72 per cent in September 2025, it said. The report, drawing from consultations and surveys with chief economists from the public and private sectors worldwide, said South Asia has returned to the top of the regional growth outlook. Two-thirds of the chief ...

The IMF said India continues to anchor global growth, adding that recent economic data has outperformed expectations and could prompt a higher growth projection in its January review

There's no shortage of forecasts for 2026, but 2025 shows why we should treat them with scepticism

India is likely to clock a GDP growth of 7.5-7.8 per cent in the current fiscal, supported by festive demand and robust services activity, and moderate to 6.6-6.9 per cent in FY27 on a high base and persistent global uncertainties, Deloitte India said on Wednesday. For India, 2025 will be remembered as the year of "resilience" in domestic demand, decisive reforms in fiscal, monetary and labour policies, and recalibrations in trade policies. Real GDP grew 8 per cent in the first half (April-September) of the ongoing 2025-26 fiscal despite global headwinds such as trade disruptions, policy shifts in advanced economies, and volatile capital flows. Deloitte India expects full year GDP growth at 7.5-7.8 per cent for FY2025-26, supported by festive demand and robust services activity. Furthermore, growth may moderate to 6.6-6.9 per cent in FY2026-27, reflecting a high base and persistent global uncertainties, it said in a statement. "India's resilience is no accident. It stems from ...

BMI, a Fitch Group company, on Monday forecast a 7.4 per cent growth for the current fiscal and 7 per cent for FY27 saying a favourable policy environment bode well for India's economic outlook. It said that monetary and regulatory measures should stimulate investment and consumption over 2026-27 fiscal. "A strong advanced estimate of the current fiscal year's GDP, rising US-bound merchandise exports during the past two months, and a favourable policy environment bode well for India's economic outlook," BMI said in a report. The National Statistics Office (NSO) has projected a 7.4 per cent GDP expansion for FY2025/26 (April-March). This implies the government expects GDP will grow by around 7 per cent Y-o-Y on average in the second half of the fiscal year. The Indian economy grew at 6.5 per cent in 2024-25 fiscal. BMI revised upwards GDP forecast for 2025-26 to 7.4 per cent, up from 7.2 per cent projected earlier. It now expects GDP to rise by 7 per cent in FY2026-27, up from 6.6

Slower nominal GDP growth in FY26 may not hurt deficit math, but weak tax buoyancy and a slipping tax-to-GDP ratio signal rising stress on revenue collections