 "Champions Trophy: Pakistan's road ahead - why wins vs IND, BAN are crucial")
The defending champions, Pakistan, started their ICC Champions Trophy campaign with a massive 60-run loss against New Zealand on Wednesday. While many may wonder how much damage a single loss can cause in a tournament, the reality is that the short format of the Champions Trophy puts teams in danger of elimination even after just one defeat. The hosts are already feeling the heat of that. Pakistan have two matches left in the group stage against India and Bangladesh on February 23 and 27, respectively, and they need to win both games if they wish to qualify for the semifinals.
Pakistan semifinal qualification scenarios
But how does the qualification scenario now work for Pakistan in their remaining games? Let’s take a look.
Win against both India and Bangladesh
If the Mohammad Rizwan-led side manage to beat both India and Bangladesh in their next two matches, they will end up with four points from three games. This means that if New Zealand also win their remaining games, Pakistan and New Zealand will qualify for the semifinals. But if New Zealand lose any of their next two games, it will come down to net run rate (NRR), and the two teams with the best NRR will qualify for the final four.
Loss against India and win against Bangladesh
If Pakistan lose their next game to India, they will have to hope that Bangladesh beat New Zealand; otherwise, the defending champions will be eliminated even before playing their last match against Bangladesh. But if New Zealand lose their next game to Bangladesh, Pakistan will then have to rely on India to beat New Zealand in their last game to book their place in the semifinals. This scenario will only apply if Bangladesh beat India on Thursday; otherwise, India, with two wins, will qualify for the semis.
Win vs India and loss against Bangladesh
If Pakistan beat India but lose to Bangladesh, they will once again have to rely on New Zealand to win their games, as that will force a three-way tie between India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. However, this will only be the case if India beat Bangladesh on Thursday; if not, Bangladesh, with two wins, will book their place in the next stage.
Loss against both India and Bangladesh
If Pakistan lose both their games to India and Bangladesh, their journey in the ICC Champions Trophy 2025 will end in the group stage. Check ICC Champions Trophy 2025 points table here