Improved spatial rain distribution aids crops, shows CRISIL DRIP index

As of August 10, the all-India rainfall in line with the long-period average (LPA), or ‘normal’. The gauge has improved from 10 per cent deficiency at the end of June but remains less than the 5 per cent surplus seen at the end of July. The spatial distribution of rainfall has also improved. As on August 10, rains were normal in 10 of the major crop-growing states, while three received deficient rainfall, and four grappled with a surplus.
 

Region-wise, excess rains in the northwest had reduced to 17 per cent of the LPA on August 10 compared to 31 per cent on July 31, and to 6 per cent compared to 12 per cent in central India. Meanwhile, the rainfall deficit in the northeast narrowed to 18 per cent from 25 per cent. However, the southern peninsula fared slightly worse at 7 per cent compared to 5 per cent.
 

However, data on rainfall volume alone is insufficient to assess the hydration math. For a comprehensive perspective on the impact of rainfall on states and crops, there is a need to factor in the vulnerabilities that arise from inadequate irrigation as well.

CRISIL’s Deficient Rainfall Impact Parameter, or DRIP, does just that. The higher the CRISIL DRIP score, the more adverse is the impact of deficient rains.
 

DRIP results for the week ending August 2 (for which the required disaggregated rainfall data is available) highlight some stress in Bihar, West Bengal, and Uttar Pradesh, whose scores are worse than the past five-year average.
 

These regions were affected by deficient rains at the start of the season and lower irrigation cover in some parts. At the current deficiency of 29 per cent, Bihar’s DRIP score is worse than last year.
 

Crop-wise, DRIP scores are better for most crops except pulses and rice relative to the previous year. Rice’s DRIP score was high and worse than the past five-fiscal average. It is pertinent to note that West Bengal, the largest producer of rice, has been reeling under deficient rainfall and is, therefore, facing an adverse DRIP score. The score for pulses is better than in the past, but as high as rice, suggesting some pressure.
 

However, the rainfall situation continues to evolve. 
 

Sowing, which was delayed at the start of the season due to the glitchy monsoon, has now gained momentum. As of August 4, total sowing was 0.4 per cent higher on a year-on-year basis, compared with -1.6 per cent as of mid-July.

All food crops, except pulses, saw higher sowing on a year-on-year basis. In pulses, it was lower in major producer states such as Karnataka, Maharashtra, and Madhya Pradesh, where rains have caught up after a delay. July and August are critical months for kharif crops. Therefore, a lot would depend on how August pans out.

The IMD expects rainfall distribution to be uneven for the rest of the season. While North India is likely to receive above-normal rainfall, the West and peninsular India will likely see below-normal rainfall going forward. The impact of El Niño also remains a monitorable factor.

Considering these aspects, the granular impact of rainfall across regions will be critical to gauge agricultural prospects this year.