GDP base revision could be done more frequently in future: Rao Inderjit

MoSPI is examining the feasibility of salvaging the data of 7th Economic Census in consultation with states/UTs

The Indian Statistical System will play a key role in “data-driven” decision making by the government in the journey towards Viksit Bharat 2047, says Rao Inderjit Singh, Union minister of state (independent charge), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (Mospi), in an email interview with Shiva Rajora. Edited excerpts.

 

Your ministry is extensively focusing on technology to collect, process, and disseminate data and also on using alternative data sources. How are these changes driving the transformation in the ministry? How does it benefit data users? 

 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has said: “We must become tech-savvy so that every policy and scheme can be made more efficient and accessible through technology. We must become experts in data-driven decision-making, so that policy design and implementation become more accurate.” The ministry is adapting technology, including artificial intelligence (AI), in its generation of statistical products and taking the lead role to provide the required data to policymakers in time so that accurate policies could improve the quality of life of the people. 

 

The ministry has shifted from data collection through pen and paper to tablets through computer-assisted personal interviews in national sample surveys (NSS). In-house software is developed for data validation, multiplier calculation, table generation, etc. AI-enabled chatbots have been included in surveys like the Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises. With computer-assisted personal interviews, the time period for disseminating the results and the data of the surveys after the conduct of the survey could be reduced to a great extent. For example, the recent modular telecom survey was conducted by the National Statistics Office from January to March 2025 and the results of that have been released in May 2025.  

 

What is the ministry’s vision in line with the government’s 2047 Viksit Bharat agenda. Where do you see the ministry in 2047? 

 

The Indian Statistical System is being equipped with modern technology, capacity development, and interaction with data-users, academia, and private-sector and international statistical agencies. The system is responding well. It is expected that the Indian Statistical System will play a key role in data-driven decision making by the government in the journey towards Viksit Bharat 2047 as envisaged by the Prime Minister.  

 

As part of the 2047 agenda, you had a meeting with states on strengthening their statistical systems. How has been their response?   

 

At present, most of the states/Union Territories (UTs) are participating in the 80th round of the NSS, which started in January -- on an equal matching pattern of sample size as that of the Centre. The ministry is providing technical guidance, training, etc. The ministry has requested all states/UTs to participate in other surveys taken up by us. 

 

It has also been decided that the ministry will release national and state-level estimates whereas the state governments will focus on only district-level estimates.  

 

The ministry is revising the base year for important macro-economic indicators. How much progress has been made on this? 

 

For gross domestic product (GDP), the new series is scheduled to be released on February 27, 2026, with 2022-23 as the base year. For the index of industrial production (IIP), 2022-23 has been tentatively identified as the revised base. The IIP on revised base will be released in 2026-27. For the consumer price index (CPI), 2024 has been identified as the revised base year. The item basket and the weightings of the items will be decided based on the NSO’s Household Consumer Expenditure Survey (HCES) conducted in 2023-24. The new CPI series is expected to be published from the first quarter of 2026. The ministry is also planning to conduct the HCES in about every three years. 

 

Amid reports of the IIP base year being chain-based, are there plans to make GDP base-year revision also chain- based?    

 

The ministry is exploring the experimental compilation of a chain-based IIP to improve responsiveness to structural changes. The item basket and factory frame of the new IIP series will be selected using the latest Annual Survey of Industries (ASI) 2022-23 data. 

 

Meanwhile, for chain-based GDP, the annual data in respect of government expenditure and private corporate sector is available, but for the large informal sector in India, the data is not available and their estimates are dependent on various survey results. Hence, attempts are now being made to reduce the periodicity of these surveys. 

 

With the availability of more datasets, GDP base revision could be done more frequently in the near future. 

 

There has been concern about the quality of official data. The National Statistical Commission (NSC), set up in 2005, still lacks statutory backing. Are there any plans to give statutory status to the NSC? Is the government working to set up a Statistical Reforms Commission to study the country’s statistical system in depth and come up with subsequent reforms?   

 

The NSC continues to guide the ministry on statistical matters. According to its recommendation, a steering committee to address issues raised on subject results, the methodology, the questionnaire, the sampling frame, sampling design, concepts and definitions, survey instruments for all sample surveys was constituted last year. The finalisation and approval of survey results/reports for release is done by the steering committee. 

 

The two technical advisory groups (TAGs) under the aegis of the steering committee provide guidance on household surveys and enterprise surveys. The recommendations of the steering committee and reports of TAGs are placed before the NSC for deliberations and finalisation. Thus, the tiered mechanism in form of the TAGs, steering committee and the overarching guidance of the NSC provide a rigorous framework for all National Sample Surveys. 

 

With the vast majority of outside members, the steering committee ensures a forum catering to the external view of distinguished experts on the methodology and quality of surveys. The NSC has also been assigned the job of implementing reforms under the road map “strengthening the Indian National Statistical System”, prepared by the ministry. The Commission periodically reviews the progress of the road map. The representatives of Reserve Bank of India and Department of Economic Affairs also participate in these reviews. 

 

The data on the Economic Census (EC) still remains more than a decade old, with the new survey yet to commence. Recently, the parliamentary standing committee in its report asked the ministry to salvage some useful data from the 7th EC. Has some progress been made on this count?

 

The fieldwork of the 7th EC was conducted during the pandemic when most of the business establishments were closed. Consequently, the data collected may not have provided a true account of entrepreneurial activity in the country. States reported several issues related to data, including under-coverage/over-coverage, unusual variations compared to the previous EC data, etc. As a consequence, the results of the 7th EC could not be published. 

 

However, the ministry is examining the feasibility of salvaging the data of the 7th EC in consultation with states/UTs.

 

The ministry has been in talks with other ministries and trying to cater to their specific demands for surveys and data generation. What are some of the new surveys that the NSO is planning and designing to undertake in the upcoming months? 

 

The NSO will be launching two surveys -- National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) and Domestic Tourism Expenditure Survey (DTES) -- from July. 

 

The purpose of the NHTS is to assess the spatial origin destination matrix for different transportation modes and influencing factors affecting the mode, destination choice, the price elasticity of travel demand by mode, and opening up avenues for further research in railways and enhancing the capacity for transport planning. 

 

In the DTES, information is collected on different aspects like the purpose of the trip, the mode of transport, accommodation used during the trip, the final destination within the country, the use of various tourism specific products and services for the trip, etc. This will help the Ministry of Tourism to prepare the next Tourism Satellite Account (TSA).  

 

Further, the ministry has conducted a pilot study on the Annual Survey of Service Sector Enterprises (ASSSE). The experience gained during the pilot is being harnessed to launch a full-fledged survey on the ASSSE, which is expected to start in January next year. The results of the same may be expected in 2027.